PQ on track for possible majority as new polls show CAQ in steep decline

New polling suggests the Parti Québécois could be headed toward a majority government in next week’s provincial election, while support for the Coalition Avenir Québec has fallen sharply, with one projection suggesting the governing party could fail to win a single seat.

Three polls released with one week remaining in the campaign point to growing momentum for PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and mounting challenges for CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette.

A Léger survey places the CAQ at 16 per cent support, putting the party in fourth place behind the PQ, Quebec Liberals and Conservatives.

A projection by Route127.ca suggests the CAQ could be shut out of the national assembly altogether, while placing the PQ in majority-government territory.

“We have a very strong team and I’m pretty confident that we will convince Quebecers to support us and vote for us,” Fréchette told reporters on the campaign trail Monday.

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The polling comes after a difficult weekend for the CAQ. Fréchette said she spoke with her communications team after reports emerged that a staff member had encouraged journalists to write about a publication from a fringe American think tank that promoted the idea of destabilizing Canada by supporting separatist parties.

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Fréchette said the initiative was undertaken without her knowledge. “I think it should be discussed with me first, so this is the change that we brought,” she said.

Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said the controversy reinforces his argument that his party is the best option for Quebecers who want to avoid another referendum debate.

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“My take is that the CAQ over the weekend has disqualified itself,” Milliard said.

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The latest projections suggest the Liberals remain solidly in second place.

“They need to hear me out, they need to join us, and make sure that we can form the government in eight days,” Milliard said.

Meanwhile, St-Pierre Plamondon campaigned in the Eastern Townships as polling and projections continued to favour his party.

“We have the best team, we have the momentum, and we have solid and intelligent solutions to what the CAQ has left behind,” he said.

A PQ majority would give St-Pierre Plamondon the legislative numbers needed to pursue the referendum on Quebec sovereignty that he has promised for 2029 after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.

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“We would actually be the richest country on the first day of the foundation of the country, the richest country in the history of our planet in terms of GDP per capita on day one,” he said about Quebec becoming an independent nation.

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Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime also cast his party as a bastion against Quebec sovereignty, particularly if the election results in a minority government. “The Conservative party is now second among francophones and we’re the only ones who can stop the Parti Québécois and their obsession with sovereignty,” Duhaime said.

Despite the polling numbers, Fréchette said a week remains in the campaign and expressed confidence her party can still recover before voters head to the polls on election day.