The revolving door that is Kenya’s deputy presidency

The politics of the presidency is one of absolute opposites and can only succeed when the president and his deputy work in tandem rather than at cross-purposes.

The Constitution recognises the president as the head of state and government, with Article 147 stating that the deputy president “shall be the principal assistant of the president and shall deputise for the president in the execution of the president's functions.”

Kenya has experienced its fair share of fall-outs between presidents and their deputies, majorly attributed to the clashing of ideas, competing interests and succession politics.

It all began with the acrimonious falling-out between Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, majorly over policy positions, leading to Oginga’s resignation in 1966.

During his tenure as president, Daniel arap Moi fell out with Mwai Kibaki, leading to the latter’s demotion from vice president to Minister for Health in 1988, and with Joseph Karanja, resulting in his resignation in 1989 after only one year in office.

The race to succeed Moi created a rift between him and the then Vice President George Saitoti, who was interested in the presidency, leading to his dismissal in August 2002, with Musalia Mudavadi taking his place.

Moi settled on Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor with Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate, leading to a mass exodus from Kanu that saw Saitoti, Raila Odinga and others form the National Rainbow Coalition that eventually won the 2022 General Election, with Mwai Kibaki as president and Kijani Wamalwa as VP.

Most recently, the bromance witnessed in the full glare of the camera when Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto took office in 2013 fizzled out as years went by, with a full-blown rift playing out in their second term in office. Uhuru would then enter into a political agreement with Raila Odinga and throw his support behind the ODM leader in the 2022 presidential contest against Ruto.

History repeated itself in 2024 when Ruto, now as president, fell out with his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, resulting in his impeachment in 2024 just months after the incorporation of ODM leaders into government through a broad-based agreement signed between Ruto and Raila.

While there may be no differences in policy position between Ruto and his current deputy Prof Kithure Kindiki, political dynamics may lead to his abandonment of the ticket.

Ruto, who is facing a gruelling re-election battle, needs a running mate who can marshal the numbers. Kindiki is loyal to a fault, no doubt, but he does not have the votes needed to bring Ruto back to State House, especially with the Mt Kenya region all but gone.

ODM has already laid claim to the running mate position and 50 per cent share in appointive positions in Cabinet, ambassadorship and parastatals, as part of their pre-2027 coalition agreement.

It is for this reason that Ruto may have to get an ODM running mate that can bring him the Luo Nyanza voting bloc, as well as pockets of votes from the other parts of Kenya.

Additionally, besides loyalty, Ruto’s pick for a running mate must be non-confrontational, smart and supportive; someone like Kindiki, but with a solid political base.

Another fundamental factor will be the running mate’s political ambitions.

It is a proven fact that a deputy president who is gunning to succeed their boss will delegate much of their time to ground consolidation, resource mobilisation, and campaign activation, utilising the resources at their disposal to build a competitive advantage over their opponents.

While doing this, they would inadvertently place the president’s legacy agenda on the back burner, thus leaving him exposed. Ruto will therefore be keen not to repeat the mistakes of the past by picking someone whose only focus would be to help him achieve his legacy agenda.

Out of the broad-based leaders seen as possible candidates, Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya is facing a revolt in his Western backyard orchestrated by the emergence of Edwin Sifuna; Mining CS Hassan Joho has the disadvantage of coming from the Coast region which, though an ODM zone, cannot marshal the numbers needed to win re-election, while Oburu Oginga and Gladys Wanga have already declared interests in defending their senatorial and governorship seats, respectively.

This leaves one person in the field of play – Energy CS James Opiyo Wandayi.

His measured demeanour, development-oriented politics, grounded personality and proven loyalty to his political mentor Raila Odinga places him above the rest in the pecking order.

In addition to his wide acceptability in Luo Nyanza and Western, Wandayi brings to the table an expansive political network built during his countrywide engagements with leaders and the public during the roll-out of Last Mile Electricity Connectivity Programme in the regions.

With limited options and a tight contest for the number two slot, President Ruto will be keen to build up a ticket that will not only win him re-election but also support his legacy agenda. It is all to play for, and in this game of chess, pawns will be sacrificed so that the King can survive.

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The writer is a political communication strategist. X: @benjaminwafula