Iranian leadership considers escalation as US officials fear military, cyberattacks - report

Iran may be considering a significant escalation in its war with the United States, having grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East, The New York Times reported on Friday, citing recent US intelligence reports. 

Throughout the war, Iran gained a better understanding of its military strengths and confidence regarding its capabilities, leading to a reluctance among Iranian leaders to make any sort of agreement to fully end the war, according to the report. 

In recent weeks, Iran has resumed strikes against US targets in the Middle East and the US has resumed strikes within Iran, but US officials fear that Iran may intensify their attacks both within the Middle East, targeting more ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US infrastructure in the region and within the cybersphere, mounting cyberattacks on essential US domestic systems, the NYT wrote. 

Cyberattacks believed to have been perpetrated by Iran-linked hackers

According to the report, US officials believe Iran-linked hackers were behind cyberattacks on more than 100 water systems across the US in July. 

While no systems were degraded to the point of making water unsafe to drink, the attacks caused disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories.

US oil and gas infrastructure may also be on the hackers' target list, current and former US officials told the NYT, although those systems are more protected. 

It is unclear whether any energy systems have been breached, the NYT wrote. 

In addition to any actual disruptions to US systems, former intelligence officials and security experts told the NYT that Iran may use the opportunity to increase the unpopularity of the war. 

“Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict,” Alex Orleans, a former US government cybersecurity contractor who specializes in tracking Iranian hacking groups, told the NYT. 

Iran has also gained a more precise understanding of its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and believes that US forces will not be able to sustain major new strikes due to dwindling munition stockpiles, according to the report.

Iran focuses on US elections

Additionally, knowing the war is unpopular, in part due to high gas prices, Iranian leaders may want to drag the war out until at least the midterms.

“The Iranians think they have maximum leverage,” the NYT cited Representative Josh Gottheimer, Democrat of New Jersey, as saying. “So, from their perspective, why not keep sticking it to the president?”

Signs of Iran spreading propaganda against Trump have emerged, with Meta releasing a report highlighting a network of Facebook and Instagram accounts originating in Iran and focused on US politics, including "anti-Republican views."

Domestic media in Iran has also published more than 1,200 Persian-language articles within the past two weeks about Trump and the midterm elections, according to threat intelligence company Alethea.

While the Trump administration has focused on economic sanctions, one member of the Intelligence Committee told the NYT he expected Iran to endure the measures. 

“Because the Iranian government does not care much about the suffering of its people, it has been able to withstand both punishing economic sanctions and military bombardments,” he was cited as saying.