Why Brexit could end up being Kemi Badenoch’s arrow in the eye

This year’s Conservative conference in Birmingham is being illustrated by the party’s publicity team with a full 87ft reworking of the Bayeux Tapestry. Unfortunately, they do not appear to have thought through the symbolism of William the Conqueror's victory.

The real tapestry is currently on loan to the British Museum from France and has sparked a frenzy of artificial intelligence-inspired imitations – not least from the Tories.

The first image they put out was of leader Kemi Badenoch in the place of the ill-fated Harold Godwinson being proclaimed leader. It does not take a scholar of 1066 and all that to know that Godwinson ended up getting one in the eye when he was finally undone by people who came over the Channel on boats from France.

But there are other parallels too. Harold Godwinson was infamously betrayed by his traitorous brother Tostig who supported another rival claim to the crown of Harald Hardrada because he did not get the job he wanted.

We already know who the Tostig for Ms Badenoch is after failed leadership rival Robert Jenrick joined Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s rival challenge to the centre right.

And herein lies the problem for the Conservatives as they gather in Britain’s second city (although Ms Badenoch appears to not know that).

They are still fighting on two fronts and it means that, in a year, they have made little gains in the polls.

The reason King Harold was defeated in the now modern day swing constituency of Hastings is that he had been forced to fight Hardrada at Stamford Bridge in the north and then almost immediately after march south to try to stop William. His exhausted and depleted army was unable to win the second battle.

For the Tories they are fighting Reform in many of their previously safe seats in East Anglia, Essex, Kent, the Midlands, north west and north east. But, then, up against Labour and the Lib Dems in the south west, Surrey, Sussex, London and home counties.

And despite Badenoch polling very well personally or being – as she put it – “the least unpopular party leader”, the Tories have barely moved in the polls since her triumphant autumn conference in Manchester in 2025 where she cemented her leadership.

While Reform’s support has collapsed by about 10 points in the polls, very little of that support has gone back to the Tories who are still more than five points below the point where they were when Ms Badenoch became leader in 2024.

This time last year, the polling ranged from 14 per cent to 20 per cent. This year it ranges from 17 per cent to 22 per cent. The gains there are all within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent.

The Badenoch magic is not working in helping her party.

Two senior members of the party have spoken candidly to The Independent in interviews for this contest – soon to be London mayoral candidate Sir James Cleverly and shadow secretary for women and equalities Joy Morrissey. Both are urging calm.

Sir James described a conversation he had recently with William Hague who became leader in 1997 but gained just two seats in the 2001 election despite “working very very hard” and being quite popular personally with voters.

“He and I were discussing, actually, how effectively Kemi has set about repairing the party's reputation. Now that won't play out in the polls immediately. I think what we need to do is make sure that we don't get distracted. We've got to keep focused on the issues that really matter to the British people. We've got to put forward credible alternatives. It's not enough just to say the government are doing it wrong.”

Ms Morrissey insisted: “The more I see of Kemi close up, the more I like everything that she believes in, and just what she stands for, and she's no nonsense.

“She has the strong leadership to be able to deal with the crisis, to be able to take our country out of the economic doldrums that we're in right now, and to bring on a positive change for Britain, and I believe she is that leader.”

Ms Morrissey also notes the importance of the Conservative’s “fully costed, carefully thought out policies”, something that the social media team considered when they did a mock up of the tapestry’s Haley’s comet scene with a doom-laden [John] Healey’s comet about the difficult choices facing the Labour chancellor.

But one of the questions this week is whether the party which gave Britain Brexit can use the issue to revive itself now that Labour prime minister Andy Burnham has put rejoining the EU back on the table.

The polling for Best for Britain – which shows only four constituencies do not have a majority which thinks Brexit was a mistake – suggests that it may not be the issue to save Ms Badenoch and her party.

No wonder Ms Badenoch’s advisors prefer that she avoids the “B-word” subject as much as possible, after all it is much more aligned to Mr Farage’s identity than hers. she was not even an MP when the referendum happened so never publicly had to make the choice of which side to be on.

Now her decision to switch a hard Brexiteer in Dame Priti Patel for a former Remainer Tom Tugendhat indicates that the subject is one she would rather move on from.

Nevertheless like most senior Tories, Sir James is happy to fight for Brexit because he argued EU regulation would threaten London and the UK’s status as a tech artificial intelligence super power.

And Ms Morrissey lambasted Mr Burnham’s conference speech on Brexit.

“He said we're probably going to go back into the EU, even though all of you voted, including in his own [Makerfield] constituency, to Leave. But forget about what the people want. You know, I thought it was the most party political speech ever, only speaking to the progressive left.”

It is a subject Ms Badenoch is going to have to go into battle. A hill to die on politically, just like Harold.

Returning to the Tory fascination with the Bayeux Tapestry, there is an ill omen for them there too.

In the end, it was a European force from France led by William the Conqueror that finished off poor King Harold in the now swing constituency of Hastings – just as a desire among voters to reconnect with the European Union could undo Ms Badenoch’s faint hopes of winning the next election.

Brexit could actually end up being Ms Badenoch’s arrow in the eye.