Rain likely to return after 3-week lull; Kutch, Saurashtra still 40% rain deficit

Monsoon may be preparing for a late revival in Gujarat, but it may do little to fill up the state’s most worrying rainfall gaps, especially in districts with high rain deficit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecast a heavy to very heavy spell of rain across South Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra from September 12 (Saturday).

The forecast comes after a prolonged lull in monsoon activity for over three weeks and against a sharply uneven rainfall pattern across the state recorded so far. Of the districts bracing for another spell of heavy showers, several have already received substantial rain this season, leaving large parts of Saurashtra and Kutch well short of their normal cumulative rainfall.

The IMD’s latest data show that Gujarat received 516.9 mm of rain against a normal 643.7 mm between June 1 and September 10, a deficit of 20%. The shortfall is considerably greater in Saurashtra and Kutch, which have recorded 294.8 mm against a normal 481.8 mm –a deficit of 39%.

The district-wise forecast points to the strongest phase beginning on September 12. The IMD has issued a yellow alert, warning of heavy rain at isolated places across South Gujarat, covering Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Dang, Navsari and Valsad, besides Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. Thunderstorms with lightning and surface winds of 30–40 kmph are also likely over parts of North Gujarat, South Gujarat and Saurashtra.

On September 13, orange warning for very heavy rain is issued for isolated places in Dang, Navsari, Valsad, Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. Heavy rain is forecast in several central Gujarat districts, including Ahmedabad, Anand, Panchmahal, Dahod, Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat and Tapi, and in Saurashtra districts including Rajkot, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Gir Somnath, Botad and Diu.

The following day, orange alert is issued for very heavy rain forecast in Dang, Navsari and Valsad and in Amreli and Bhavnagar, while heavy rain is expected over a wider stretch of Saurashtra, including Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagadh, Morbi, Dwarka, Gir Somnath, Botad and Diu. On September 16, heavy rains are expected at isolated places of Saurashtra, namely Porbandar, Junagadh, Dwarka, Gir Somnath and Diu.

This monsoon, Valsad has already received 2738.3 mm against a normal 1,891.3 mm, a surplus of 45%, while Navsari has recorded 2,242.3 mm against 1,666.8 mm, a surplus of 35%.

Aditi Raja is an Assistant Editor with The Indian Express, stationed in Vadodara, Gujarat, with over 20 years in the field. She has been reporting from the region of Central Gujarat and Narmada district for this newspaper since 2013, which establishes her as a highly Authoritative and Trustworthy source on regional politics, administration, and critical socio-economic and environmental issues. Expertise: Core Authority & Specialization: Her reporting is characterized by a comprehensive grasp of the complex factors shaping Central Gujarat, which comprises a vast tribal population, including: Politics and Administration: In-depth analysis of dynamics within factions of political parties and how it affects the affairs in the region, visits of national leaders making prominent statements, and government policy decisions impacting the population on ground. Crucial Regional Projects: She consistently reports on the socio-economic and political impact of infrastructure projects in the region, especially the Statue of Unity, the Sardar Sarovar Project on the Narmada River, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail bullet train project as well as the National Highway infrastructure. Social Justice and Human Rights: Her reporting offers deep coverage of sensitive human-interest topics, including gender, crime, and tribal issues. Her reports cover legal proceedings from various district courts as well as the Gujarat High Court (e.g., the Bilkis Bano case remission, POCSO court orders, Public Interest Litigations), the plight of tribal communities, and broader social conflicts (e.g., Kheda flogging case). Local Impact & Disaster Reporting: Excels in documenting the immediate impact of events on communities, such as the political and civic fallout of the Vadodara floods, the subsequent public anger, and the long-delayed river redevelopment projects, Harni Boat Tragedy, Air India crash, bringing out a blend of stories from the investigations as well as human emotions. Special Interest Beat: She tracks incidents concerning Non-Resident Gujaratis (NRIs) including crime and legal battles abroad, issues of illegal immigration and deportations, as well as social events connecting the local Gujarati experience to the global diaspora. ... Read More

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