As COP31 Antalya kicks off, can world move beyond big promises?

With its pulsing music, flashy images and barrage of special effects, the key message in Antalya's marketing video is clear: Turkey, the host of the 31st edition of the UN climate talks, is cool, stylish, modern — and eco-conscious.

Both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife, Emine, make an appearance, with Turkey's first lady calling climate change "one of the most visible manifestations of the burden human activity has placed on our planet."

From November 9-20, delegates from nearly every country in the world are coming together in the Mediterranean city of Antalya to chart a way out of the climate crisis. Turkey is the official host, and Australia will lead the negotiations. But the issues they'll confront during those 12 days are far more serious than the showy marketing campaign make them out to be.

Severe drought, extreme heat, wildfires and record-low water levels in Europe's main waterways — summer across the continent was dominated by climate emergencies.

And in late August, a series of flash floods triggered by a rock-ice avalanche in Nepal and Tibet washed away entire villages, killing more than 1,400 people and leaving thousands missing. Climate experts have linked the disaster to melting ice and a warming climate.

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Globally, carbon emissions are still rising: the UN has concluded that it is no longer possible to keep global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the goal agreed at COP21 in 2015.

The global transition away from polluting fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas will be at the center of attention in Antalya — once again. To date, there's been no consensus on whether and how to transition rapidly away from this main source of global warming.

Climate talks not enough to save 

Despite the setbacks, the world has made some progress thanks to the 2015 Paris Agreement.

David Victor, a climate expert at the University of California San Diego, pointed out that before then, the planet was hurtling toward an average temperature rise of between 3-3.5 C. 

If current climate commitments are fully implemented, the latest UN projections show a rise of up to 2.6 C. It's a significant step forward, even though warming of that magnitude will still have worldwide consequences.

"There's no question that we could be doing more," said Victor, though he cautioned against pinning too much on this year's summit.

All agreements at COP need to be unanimous, meaning individual states can quash any sweeping resolutions. Added to that challenge are the ongoing wars, trade conflicts and other economic problems swirling around this year's negotiations.

"It's like a giant Christmas tree in which everybody's hung their different ornaments, and the tree is groaning and more ornaments are being put on it," said Victor. "We have to look at it for what it is: It's a place where people talk about stuff."

Climate 'clubs' banding together to enact change

Instead of waiting for all COP member states to come to an agreement, Victor sees a better chance for change in what he called "clubs" — smaller alliances of governments and companies working together to advance actual solutions, whether it be in aviation, shipping or electromobility.

"The Paris process is important. It has to go forward," he told DW. "But all the work is going to be done in clubs."

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An example of this approach was last April's first ever International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia.

Colombia and the Netherlands invited representatives from 57 countries and key sectors to discuss ways to move the world away from coal, oil and gas, after an agreement on a similar plan failed at the 2025 climate summit due to opposition from several oil-producing states.

Spark new momentum on decarbonization

With an eye to the ongoing trade conflicts and energy crisis, hosts Turkey and Australia have included green industrialization and the clean energy transition among their aims. One goal is to increase the share of electricity in global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, up from around 20% today.

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A recent analysis by the International Energy Agency found accelerating electrification could cut fuel-importing countries' energy bills by more than $400 billion (€357 billion) by 2035, compared to 2025 levels. The idea could appeal to regions dependent on fossil fuel imports — among them Germany and the European Union.

Ahead of COP31, German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider said Germany and the EU wanted to spark new momentum in the "global phaseout of fossil fuels." 

It's wouldn't just be good for the climate, but a chance for many countries to boost their economies and reduce dependence on energy imports, added Schneider in a statement.

Oil-producing states like Saudi Arabia, however, aren't interested in deals that will undermine their business model. At recent UN climate conferences, they've repeatedly blocked any final agreements including phaseout plans.

Even China, despite its massive expansion of wind and solar energy over the last 20 years, could be against the idea. The economic superpower traditionally rejects any outside demands, proposals or interference concerning its national decisions on energy policy.

Climate financing 'far from what's needed'

Every country in the world is affected by climate change, with loss and damage calculated in the hundreds of billions from heat, drought and storms. Worst hit are vulnerable countries in the Global South and island nations, who are at risk of disappearing as sea levels rise.

That's where money comes into play, with developing countries calling for more support to protect their citizens from the harms of global warming. At the 2024 UN climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, industrialized nations agreed to free up at least $300 billion annually in climate financing by 2035.

But where exactly all those funds will come from remains hotly debated. At the same time, several major developed countries — most notably, the US — have cut their development aid.

The German government only paid out €4.7 billion from its 2025 budget for international climate financing, down from €6.1 billion in 2024.

"The level of financial support for developing countries today is far from what's needed," said Jan Kowalzig, a climate expert at Oxfam Germany.

Breaking financial promises like this comes at the expense of losing the trust of developing countries and, as a result, the diplomatic power, on which Germany and other industrialized nations rely to shape policy to fight climate change.

Concrete action would make COP31 a success

Cosima Cassel, who focuses on climate diplomacy at the independent think tank E3G in Berlin, believes Turkey's push to turbocharge electrification during an oil crisis could be successful.

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For Cassel, a successful outcome at what are expected to be difficult negotiations in Antalya would reveal actual political will behind the grand agreements.

When it comes to electrification, that means taking the expansion of electricity grids and battery storage capacity seriously — not to mention removing the barriers to further electrification.