Bills vs. Patriots preview: Buffalo looks to stay perfect, New England looks to get right

Everything you need to know to tune into the AFC East showdown

Oct 3, 2026 at 11:16 am ET • 4 min read

Going into the 2026 season, the Week 4 matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills was one I had circled as an even matchup. Now, with three weeks behind us, the story is a big different.

The Patriots desperately need this to be a reset, as the defending AFC Champions' season begins to crumble below them. But no one is happier to watch the Patriots struggle than the Bills. When it comes to AFC East titles, the last two decades, New England has personified a roadblock for the Bills. Even last year, when the Patriots were supposed to be rebuilding, a hat and t-shirt game should have been a little easier to obtain for the Bills. But it was deja vu all over again for Buffalo.

This season looks to be swinging back in the Bills' favor. The Patriots are their own worst enemy, the Miami Dolphins may have the worst roster in NFL history and the New York Jets are well... the New York Jets.

Let's dive deeper into the AFC East showdown.

Where to watch Patriots vs. Bills

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -7, O/U 48.5 (via DraftKings)

Patriots vs. Bills matchup

The Patriots come into the game sitting at 1-2 with a laundry list of issues to fix. Their one win was a decent showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but even in the victory, cracks were shown. They are coming off a 35-6 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, in which Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw two interceptions and had two fumbles, losing one. Maye has a league-high six interceptions and looks like a shell of the runner-up MVP we saw last season. 

The Bills are in a different boat than New England at 3-0, though turnovers are something they struggled with last week as well. In their Week 3 24-16 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, they turned the ball over five times, with three fumbles lost and two interceptions. This was a prime example of the old adage that great teams find a way to win no matter what.

Patriots vs. Bills is a storied matchup, and New England owns the all-time series at 79-51-1.

Storylines to watch

Drake Maye drama: This week, reports surfaced that Maye and Vrabel are having issues. Both shut down them down quickly, and Vrabel said Maye is one of the reasons he chose the New England head coaching job. QB-HC issues are certainly not what this team needs. There also seems to be some questions on Maye's shoulder. Vrabel said earlier in the week that there were no issues with the area, while Maye was a little more vague answering questions, but he has said the shoulder isn't the reason for his poor play. Then comes Wednesday's injury report, and QB1 is on it, listed as a full participant with a right shoulder injury. This just raises even more questions about whether Maye can reach the level he was at last season, and it causes confusion about whether it was impacting him when Vrabel said it wasn't.

Turning point: The Patriots started the 2025 season by losing to the Las Vegas Raiders (who looked a lot different than they do this season at 3-0). The loss seemed like a sign of things to come. A month later, the Patriots were 2-2 going into a Week 5 battle against the Bills, and it was Buffalo's game to lose. The Patriots went on to beat Buffalo 23-20, and it ended up being a turning point for this season. Could that happen this year as well?

Bills' run game: I think a big key to this game will be Buffalo's run game. They are fourth-best in the league through three games with 465 yards and stand atop the league at eight touchdowns on the ground. The Patriots' run defense is in the middle of the pack and could have their work cut out for them against Allen and Co. Buffalo needs to come out strong early, because so far this hasn't been a Patriots team that shakes off early mistakes. 

Patriots vs. Bills prediction

Logic, stats, and research show the Bills will win this one, but divisional games are always different and have a way of surprising us. I'd love to say I'm bold enough to pick the Patriots, because so few people will pick them that I'd look like a genius if New England pulls out a win. But it's hard to argue with what I've seen from the two teams so far. And what I've seen is a lost Patriots team, lacking identity and perhaps more issues than they're willing to admit. The Bills are once again a Super Bowl favorite —though if you ask me, that window is starting to close — and they are a complete and well-operated machine that finds multiple ways to win.