OPINION: Why a sustainable and predictable housing market should be our goal

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On Oct. 26, voters across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) will decide who they think will best represent them and their interests over the next four years within municipal government.  

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Ahead of any election, I use this space to discuss important housing matters and perspectives that impact GTA residents. Given that this will be my last column ahead of election day, my final message to voters is to remember that when it comes to housing, a stable, sustainable and predictable market in the GTA should be our objective.  

The reality is, no one benefits from housing markets being out of balance. Massive swings in the market pose challenges for homebuyers and homebuilders alike.  

Peaks in demand and tight supply leads to rapid escalation, affordability challenges and societal impacts.  

Young families and first-time homebuyers have to delay important milestones or choose to migrate outside of the GTA in search of housing that meets their needs at a price they can afford. This affects their quality of life due to the increased time and consequence of long commutes.  

On the reverse end, valleys in demand lead to a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, employment and tax revenue for all levels of government that rely on new communities to support new infrastructures, services and programs. After all, the new home sector is a major employer and economic driver in the GTA.  

According to Statistics Canada, in 2025, economic activity related to residential investment supported over 1.2 million jobs and generated $152.1 billion in gross domestic product (3,652 per capita).  

Since 1980, there have been three major up-cycles in the GTA – 1980 to 1989, 2000 to 2008, and 2010 to 2022 (with a brief correction in 2017).  

Consequently, there have also been three down-cycles – 1990 to 1996, 2008 to 2009, and 2022 to today. However, with the recent HST rebate program for new homes, we are seeing signs of stability in the single-family market. 

In the tail end of the most recent up-cycle period from 2010 to 2022, strong demand conditions of the pandemic and post-pandemic period were driven by historically low interest rates, changing household preferences and demographic pressures.  

This was followed by one of the sharpest market corrections in decades – the current down-cycle period we are in – and has been driven by higher interest rates, lower population growth and then geopolitical and trade uncertainty that has undermined consumer confidence.  

As we look ahead with lessons of the past in mind, we know that eventually these temporary and painful factors impacting consumer confidence will pass, or people will adjust, and a new cycle will begin.   

What the next four years of new municipal council members provides is the opportunity to lay the foundation to ensure that the next housing cycle doesn’t feature the same characteristics and consequences of the previous cycles.  

This means laying the foundations to make it easier, cheaper and faster to add housing supply, ensuring that the housing market has the ability to stay in balance. 

Over the last four years, we have seen significant progress – new approval processes, the lowering of development charges, provincial and federal programs that support infrastructure and make new housing projects more economically viable.   

We need elected officials who are pro-housing and when it comes to new housing rules, policies or by-laws, will ask themselves questions like – will this proposed policy make new housing more expensive? Will this restrict supply? Will this lower housing costs and stimulate supply? 

If the answers to these questions are ‘more expensive housing’ or ‘less housing’, we need municipal councilors and mayors who will strenuously oppose it. And if the answers are ‘less expensive housing’ and ‘more housing’, we need elected officials who will be vigorous advocates – not just for housing, but for future generations who will be its occupants. 

So, as voters head to the polls on October 26, ensure you’re exercising your right to vote and keep in mind that a stable, sustainable and predictable housing market in the GTA should be our collective objective.  

Dave Wilkes is President and CEO, Building Industry and Land Development Association. 

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