Fantasy football Week 3 QB preview: Patrick Mahomes looks like a top-10 option again after hot start

Heath Cummings looks into Patrick Mahomes' first two weeks to determine if he is a must-start quarterback again

Sep 22, 2026 at 12:18 pm ET • 3 min read

The story of Week 3 at the quarterback positions is replacing injured starters. As of Tuesday morning, we aren't projecting Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Jaxson Dart to play in Week 3. On Monday, I addressed how those injuries affect their teammates in my Week 3 risers and fallers. I will address my favorite replacement options, led by Bryce Young, in the waiver wire section below. Before we get there, I want to talk about a guy who is not on the waiver wire, but may be on your bench. After two weeks, is Patrick Mahomes back?

In CBS leagues, Mahomes currently ranks as the QB3 with an average of 30.3 Fantasy points per game. But his two games couldn't have been much different. In Week 1, he threw for less than 200 yards against the Broncos but ran for a touchdown and threw two more. In Week 2, he completely dominated a bad Colts defense with 381 passing yards and three touchdowns. He certainly looked back in that game, making some classic Mahomes throws, but it was the Colts. Then again, in Week 3, he faces the Dolphins.

Looking at the underlying stats, Mahomes' true dropback percentage is the lowest of his career at 53.6%. That's not a great sign for Fantasy points, as dropbacks and designed rushes are the two opportunities for QBs to score points, and Mahomes doesn't have a designed rush in two games. His scramble rate has remained stable, so it seems concerns about his ACL are pretty much nil, at least from his perspective. Where we have seen the biggest difference through two weeks is that Mahomes' off-target rate (5.4%) is also at a career low, his yards per attempt are his best mark since 2022, and his play action rate (28.6%) is the highest since 2020. He also, despite the Josh Simmons situation, has the second-lowest pressure rate of his career.

It is awfully early to jump to too big of conclusion, but the one thing I think we can say definitively is that the Chiefs actually have a good offense again. Kenneth Walker has been incredible and Emmett Johnson looks better than any back they've had on the roster the last three years. This rush attack should provide more scoring opportunities, and the Chiefs are still having more success passing in the red zone than rushing. All of that is enough for me to rank Mahomes as a top 10 QB this week against the Dolphins, for the first time all season. There is some risk he only throws 20 passes and the running backs score all the touchdowns, but that's a risk you take against bad teams. Rest of season I have Mahomes at QB10. Not quite all the way back to where he used to be ranked, but much higher than we ranked him in the preseason. 

Let's get to the rest of the preview:

Week 3 QB Preview

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Numbers to know

• 73.1% -- Jordan Love's 73.1% true dropback rate is his highest as a starter. This team cannot run the ball effectively, so Love should have enough volume to be a borderline top 12 QB.
• 67.9% -- Brock Purdy has a 67.9% success rate, the highest mark amongst starting QBs. I am not sure anyone is playing better football right now.
• 7.3% -- Drake Maye has a 7.3% turnover worthy throw rate. He's rattled and missing A.J. Brown. I do not want to start him against Jacksonville.
• 10.2 -- Josh Allen is averaging 10.2 air yards per pass attempt, his highest mark since his rookie year. This offense is hunting explosives.
• 45.5% -- Justin Herbert has been pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks; only Caleb Williams has a higher mark.
• 8.5 -- Deshaun Watson is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. This is the best we have seen him look in Cleveland.
• 9 -- The 49ers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Patriots, and Steelers are all giving up single-digit FPPG to the QBs through two games. We'll learn more about these defenses the next two weeks but they look like the worst matchups.
• 94.3 -- Marcus Mariota has a 94.3 passer rating in his time with Washington. He's a very capable backup with a very terrible matchup in Week 3.
• 12.5% -- Bryce Young has a 12.5% explosives/dropback ratio. Only Josh Allen has a higher mark through two weeks.

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Waiver Wire Targets

Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)

CAR Carolina • #9 Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ CLE CAR -2.5 O/U 42.5 OPP VS QB 24th QB RNK 10th ROSTERED 55% YTD Stats PAYDS 648 RUYDS 16 TD 7 INT 1 FPTS/G 33.7 Everything is awesome for Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers pass game through two weeks. He's averaging 36.5 pass attempts per game, 8.9 yards per pass attempt and has only been sacked four times despite all that passing. Two games aren't enough to say it is a true breakout, and the Browns defense looked much better in Week 2 against Tampa, but it is enough to make Young the top streamer of the week. I would start him over Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield in Week 3. And if that goes well, he gets a Lions defense that has given up the most Fantasy points to QBs in Week 4.

CLE Cleveland • #4 Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs CAR CAR -2.5 O/U 42.5 OPP VS QB 17th QB RNK 18th ROSTERED 8% YTD Stats PAYDS 443 RUYDS 60 TD 3 INT 1 FPTS/G 19.9 In deeper leagues, I am willing to take a chance on Watson this week. I don't think the Panthers defense is one to fear at all and Watson has looked more confident as a passer. The rookie combination of Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion, to go along with tight end Harold Fannin, gives Watson three weapons that can win in the passing game. And the Browns inability to run the ball effectively gives Watson decent pass volume. This could look ridiculous if he turns back into a pumpkin and gets booed off the field in his first home game, but I think the upside is worth the risk.

MIN Minnesota • #1 Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ TB MIN -1.5 O/U 42.5 OPP VS QB 16th QB RNK 16th ROSTERED 64% YTD Stats PAYDS 18 RUYDS 9 TD 0 INT 1 FPTS/G -0.4 Murray fell just below the threshold after missing Week 2 with a concussion, but he should be back for Week 3 against a Washington defense that has looked like one of the worst in football through two weeks. Murray's rush ability helps his ceiling and his floor, and Justin Jefferson has been playing fantastic football to start the year. He's a better start in leagues that reward four points per pass TD, but I would start him in standard CBS leagues over Herbert and Mayfield.

One To Stash (QB Preview)

WAS Washington • #8
Age: 32 • Experience: 12 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP vs SEA SEA -7 O/U 40.5	OPP VS QB 4th	QB RNK 22nd	ROSTERED 2%

YTD Stats
PAYDS 111	RUYDS 3	TD 1	INT 0	FPTS/G 10.7

I don't want to start Mariota in Week 3 against Seattle, but he is at home against the Colts in Week 4. The Colts have given up the most Fantasy points to QBs through two weeks, though it should be noted they have faced Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Mariota has underrated rushing ability and has been an efficient passer in Washington when he's filled in for Jayden Daniels. If you're going week-to-week at QB, you may want to hold Mariota for his Week 4 game. He also gets the Giants in Week 5, which could be a place to start him if their defensive injuries prove serious.

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DFS Plays

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Projections powered by Sportsline

SF San Francisco • #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP vs ARI SF -8.5 O/U 47.5	OPP VS QB 20th	PROJ PTS 26.4	QB RNK 2nd

YTD Stats
PAYDS 492	RUYDS 59	TD 6	INT 1	FPTS/G 29.8

Purdy is my QB2 on the week and he still isn't priced as high as he should be. The Raiders will provide slightly more resistance than the Dolphins did in Week 2, but I am not sure the defense matters to this offense right now. Purdy has completed 80% of his passes this season while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He's been one of the most efficient passers in the league since he got the starting job and he's taken it to a new level to start 2026. Oh yeah, he's also adding almost six points per game on the ground.

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Heath's projections

My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.