Forecast that older people will outnumber children next year is ‘wake-up call’

Older people are expected to outnumber children in Northern Ireland by next year in what has been pressed as a “wake-up call” for government.

The number of those aged 65 and over is also forecast to rise by 44.7% by 2049.

A report published by the Commissioner for Older People for Northern Ireland, Siobhan Casey, said the figures should spark action from ministers as the changing population will affect every aspect of life in the region.

The report, Ready Or Not: The Ageing Population, said the number of people aged 65 and over will exceed the number of children aged up to 15 by mid-2027.

Siobhan Casey

This trend to set to then continue, with the number of people aged 65 and over expected to increase by 44.7% – rising from 349,200 in 2024 to 505,200 by 2049.

The population aged 85 and over is expected to more than double over the same period.

The report identified a number of significant challenges already emerging across society, including growing pressures on health and social care services, increasing housing demand, rising levels of poverty among older people, and the growing risks of social isolation and digital exclusion.

It found that Northern Ireland is projected to experience the largest increase in dementia prevalence of any UK region, while in terms of social housing there are more than 50,000 households on waiting lists, and foodbank use among those aged over 65 has increased 91% since 2019/20.

Meanwhile, the number of residential and nursing beds for every 100 people aged 65 and over has reduced 23% in the past 15 years.

Additionally, the changing age profile will transform the workforce, with the proportion of people of working age shrinking and older people likely to want to work longer.

Ms Casey has questioned whether Northern Ireland is ready for the transformation of the population.

“Northern Ireland’s population is changing rapidly and permanently,” she said. “Within the next year, older people are expected to outnumber children for the first time in our history.

“This should be a wake-up call for government.

“An ageing population is not simply a health and social care issue. It will affect almost every aspect of life in Northern Ireland, including housing, transport, employment, poverty, public finances and the sustainability of public services.

“Longer lives are one of society’s greatest achievements and should be celebrated. However, the reality is that Northern Ireland has yet to develop the co-ordinated and long-term approach needed to prepare for the scale of demographic change that lies ahead.

The report said as the population ages, older people may wish to work for longer (Alamy/PA)

“The question is no longer whether our population is ageing. The question is whether we are ready for it.”

Ms Casey urged government to incorporate population changes into planning.

“Population ageing needs to be recognised as a strategic, cross-government issue and built into long-term planning and decision-making,” she said.

“This means understanding how demographic change will affect public services, housing, transport, employment and communities, and planning for those changes now.

“This isn’t about prioritising one generation over another but ensuring that our public services follow need and are designed around the people they serve.

“Failure to plan effectively will place increasing pressure on public services and future generations.

“Older people and Northern Ireland’s ageing demographic must therefore be explicitly included in the next Programme for Government, with clear commitments to plan for the services, infrastructure and support our changing population will need.”