Antara News·Indonesia·Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 05:44 AM UTC

IHSG strengthens as US midterm election results shape global outlook

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M Heriyanto, Fauzul Azhim Bin Fakhrurazi

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia's Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) strengthened on Thursday, tracking Asian and global markets, as investors believe the results of the United States (US) midterm elections will influence the outlook for global financial markets and the economy.

The IHSG opened up 78.57 points, or 1.60 percent, at 4,998.34. Meanwhile, the LQ45 Index of 45 leading stocks rose 9.16 points, or 1.83 percent, to 510.40.

“Technically, the IHSG is expected to move sideways in the range of 4,800-5,000. The significant gains on Wall Street, the correction in crude oil prices and the US dollar, and the rebound in gold prices could serve as positive sentiment,” Head of Research Phintraco Sekuritas Ratna Lim said in her analysis in Jakarta on Thursday.

From abroad, Ratna said positive factors came from the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the US midterm elections, as well as US President Donald Trump’s reaction on the acceptance of the results.

Previously, global investors had adopted a risk-off stance (reducing exposure to risk assets) as they awaited and closely watched the midterm results, which affect various sectors.

“This has removed the risk of political uncertainty that had been hanging over Wall Street,” Ratna said.

Ratna said the Democratic Party’s landslide victory could change the policy dynamics of the Trump administration, particularly on fiscal policy, international trade, and geopolitical relations.

She added that the outcome could also limit the room for maneuver of Trump’s economic agenda, including trade tariff policy, which could in turn affect the global growth outlook, the direction of the US dollar, and financial market sentiment.

For the information, the Democratic Party secured majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and also won gubernatorial races in several key states, such as Texas.

“However, the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will still be determined by inflation and labor market conditions,” Ratna said.

On the other hand, Ratna said market participants are also concerned that the Democrats’ big win could lead to more restrictions on data centers in the US.

“In addition, history shows that markets tend to perform well under divided government in the US, where fewer policies and regulations are likely to disrupt the business outlook,” Ratna said.

Domestically, investors are awaiting economic growth data to be released on Thursday (5/11), with growth forecast at 1.3 percent quarter on quarter (qoq) in the third quarter of 2026, compared with 3.73 percent (qoq) in the second quarter of 2026.

On an annual basis, the Indonesian economy is projected to grow 5.2 percent year on year (yoy) in the third quarter of 2026, compared with 5.29 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2026.

According to Ratna, if the actual figure falls below expectations, it could weigh on market sentiment by reinforcing concerns over an economic slowdown and the earnings outlook of listed companies.

“Conversely, a better-than-expected figure could serve as a positive catalyst for the market and strengthen investor confidence in the resilience of domestic economic fundamentals,” Ratna said.

European markets all strengthened on Wednesday (4/11): the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.32 percent, the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.79 percent, Germany’s DAX climbed 2.22 percent, and France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.96 percent.

US Wall Street indices also closed higher on Wednesday (4/11): the S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.44 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3.03 percent.

Regional Asian markets this morning were mixed: the Nikkei fell 0.33 percent to 60,984.86, the Shanghai index rose 0.12 percent to 3,690.74, the Hang Seng gained 2.77 percent to 24,581.95, the Kuala Lumpur index rose 1.12 percent to 1,634.62, and the Straits Times index advanced 0.33 percent to 5,286.99.

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