Politrack poll: Ruto 45.1%, Sifuna 19.6%, Kalonzo 10.3% if elections held today

NAIROBI, Kenya Oct 1 – President William Ruto leads the presidential preference survey by Politrack Africa, with 45.1 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him if elections were held today.

The survey, released at a press conference in Nairobi on Thursday, places Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna second at 19.6 per cent, followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 10.3 per cent. Undecided respondents account for 8.4 per cent, while former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has 7.2 per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua 6.0 per cent.

In its assessment, Politrack says Ruto “leads the national presidential preference tally at 45.1%”, while Sifuna has emerged as a significant challenger with 19.6 per cent support.

Other candidates recorded lower levels of preference, with Prof George Wajackoyah at 1.1 per cent, Martha Karua and David Maraga at 0.8 per cent each, James Orengo at 0.4 per cent and Jimmy Wanjigi at 0.3 per cent.

At party level, Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance leads with 32 per cent, followed by the Democracy for the Citizens Party at 11.7 per cent and ODM at 10.6 per cent. Jubilee has 6.9 per cent, Wiper 5.6 per cent, Kenya Kwanza 3.5 per cent and Azimio 3.2 per cent.

The survey also found a near-even split over the direction of the country, with 45.2 per cent saying Kenya is moving in the right direction and 44.6 per cent saying it is moving in the wrong direction. Another 10.2 per cent were unsure.

On government performance, respondents identified roads and housing, both at 16.3 per cent, as the areas where the government is performing best, followed by health services, SHIF and SHA at 13 per cent and agriculture at 10 per cent.

However, health services, SHIF and SHA also featured prominently among areas respondents viewed as performing poorly, at 19.2 per cent, followed by the fight against corruption at 18.4 per cent and the economy and cost of living at 12 per cent. Jobs and youth opportunities followed at 10.4 per cent.

The survey also examined attitudes towards a woman becoming Kenya’s first female deputy president. Politrack reports that 53 per cent of respondents were ready for a woman deputy president, comprising 16 per cent who were “very ready” and 37 per cent who were “somewhat ready”. Among those open to the prospect, Anne Waiguru had 36 per cent support, followed by Martha Karua at 27 per cent and Gladys Wanga at 15 per cent.

Politrack says the survey was conducted between September 15 and 25 among 20,419 respondents across the country. The national estimates were weighted according to each county’s share of registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and a 95 per cent confidence level.