2026 Week 1 NFL score predictions, picks: Model releases exact game projections from 10,000 simulations

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SportsLine's model has simulated every game 10,000 times and locked in its Week 1 NFL score predictions

Sep 10, 2026 at 2:55 pm ET • 2 min read

A new season brings about new expectations. Among the teams expected to make a Super Bowl run includes the Los Angeles Rams, who seriously upgraded their defense over the offseason, bringing in Myles Garrett and benefitting from the return of Aaron Donald. Garrett spent the past nine seasons with the Cleveland Browns and was named the 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors after breaking the single-season sack record with 23. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:

Despite Donald not making the trip Down Under, the Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the 49ers on Thursday at Melbourne, Australia in the latest Week 1 NFL odds. Other notable NFL spreads on the Week 1 NFL schedule include Bills vs. Texans (+1, 44.5), Cowboys vs. Giants (+3, 48) and Chiefs vs. Broncos (+2.5, 43.5). Before making any Week 1 NFL picks on those games or others, be sure to see the exact Week 1 NFL score predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and has seen strong returns at their best sports betting app.

Now, the model has simulated every Week 1 game 10,000 times. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL exact score predictions at SportsLine.

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Top Week 1 NFL picks

After diving into every game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, the model is backing the Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) on betting apps to beat the Washington Commanders, 27-18, at home. The Eagles have dominated this series recently, winning seven of the last 10 meetings against the Commanders. Washington has dropped eight of their last 10 games overall, while Philadelphia has won three of its last five games. 

In addition, the Commanders are 5-4-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against Philadelphia. The model projects Jalen Hurts of the Eagles will throw for 213 yards and 1.79 touchdowns, while running back Saquon Barkley is projected to rush for nearly 100 yards and one touchdown. DeVonta Smith is also expected to catch five passes for nearly 75 yards. 

Quarterback Jayden Daniels of Washington is projected to throw for over 175 yards passing and one touchdown, while running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt will rush for nearly 50 yards. See the model's other Week 1 NFL score predictions at SportsLine. 

How to make Week 1 NFL score predictions

In addition, the model has locked in exact score predictions for this week's biggest matchups including Patriots vs. Seahawks, Bills vs. Texans and Cowboys vs. Giants. It's also calling for an underdog to pull off a shocking upset. Nailing these results is key to making profitable Week 1 NFL picks. You can only see them at SportsLine. 

Who wins each Week 1 NFL game, and which underdog pulls off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine now to get the model's NFL Week 1 score predictions, all from the model on a 53-37 roll on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.