Isaias expected to become hurricane before hitting U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasters say
Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico and forecasters predicted it will quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week.
Landfall forecast as soon as Friday evening
The Associated Press
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Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico and forecasters predicted it will quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week.
Communities in the potential path of Isaias moved quickly to prepare, with landfall forecast as soon as Friday evening. Some Gulf oil wells paused production and an Alabama beach city cancelled a weekend festival known to draw thousands of tourists. Florida's governor declared a state of emergency for more than one-third of the state's counties.
As it moves inland, Isaias might also disrupt Saturday's college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama, which U.S. President Donald Trump has planned to attend.
Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 178 km/h or stronger, before it strikes land, said Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
"We're expecting multiple dangerous, life-threatening impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend," Brennan said in a video briefing Wednesday.
A late arrival
The storm was on track to tie or break a 121-year-old record as the latest arriving initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the year's first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year due to a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity in the Pacific has been above average, where Tropical Storm Simon also formed Wednesday off Mexico.
The Miami-based hurricane centre on Wednesday issued a hurricane watch for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. The watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
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Brennan says dangerous storm surge could affect an even wider area, from southeast Louisiana to Florida's Big Bend. Heavy rains of seven to 15 centimetres could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of three to eight centimetres as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.
Isaias was centred about 365 kilometres northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 805 kilometres south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the hurricane center. It had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h and was moving east-northeast at 13 km/h.
Forecasters predict Isaias will become a hurricane by Thursday as it turns north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Though its path and timing could shift, the storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
Isaias is expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that's no stranger to major hurricanes. One of the 20th century's worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Miss., in 1969.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighbourhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael levelled homes and buildings near Panama City, Fla., in 2018.
Gulf oil production, tourism already affected
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15 per cent of crude pumped annually in the U.S.
As of Wednesday, producers had temporarily halted about 25 per cent of the oil produced in the region, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect oil markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
"I would characterize the oil market risk as moderate, but rising," Burkhard said in an email.
In Gulf Shores, Ala., the storm threat caused organizers to cancel the National Shrimp Festival scheduled for Thursday through the weekend. The event drew an estimated 325,000 people last year.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state's emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy disaster responders and equipment.
In Pensacola, on the Panhandle, electric utilities were readying crews to quickly repair any power outages. City officials provided sand for residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes against flooding.
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