How the old BCS formula would order top 25 as initial College Football Playoff rankings loom

Before the CFP committee unveils its first rankings next week, simulated BCS standings offer a unique look at college football's top contenders

Oct 28, 2026 at 3:00 pm ET • 6 min read

Prepare yourself for buzzword central over the next few weeks as college football enters its home stretch.

Metrics, data points, game control, record strength, the all-new conference flex addition -- yeah, they're coming. With the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's first top 25 rankings debuting Nov. 3, we thought it would be a great time to look at how we used to determine the teams who would play for a title during the Bowl Championship Series postseason.

In the BCS era (1998-2013), three equally weighted components were used to determine each team's BCS "score" and produce a ranking: the Harris Interactive Poll, the Coaches Poll and the computers. The "computers" were a combination of separate rankings (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe) into a single value system.

The AP poll replaced the Harris Interactive Poll as part of the formula in 2004. Prior to the three-tiered component system in 2004, schedule strength, quality wins and other factors were included, making the process considerably more subjective than the more widely accepted scoring system.

The four-team playoff began in 2014, giving way to the current 12-team bracket in 2024.

Courtesy of BCSKnowHow on X, here's how the current top 25 would look this season in simulated BCS standings.

2026 CFP bracket projection: Chaos reigns as SEC logjam muddies race for final spots

John Talty

1. Miami

BCS score: 0.9837

The human component of the BCS formula appreciates what the Hurricanes are doing this season after their destruction of Pittsburgh. Quarterback Darian Mensah is off to a record-setting pace in terms of efficiency, and Malachi Toney has continued to detonate opposing defenses as a sophomore with jaw-dropping numbers. That said, schedule matters and Wake Forest -- No. 21 this week in the Sagarin top 25 -- is Miami's best win. That same poll has Ohio State and Notre Dame ahead of Miami. We think the Hurricanes will be No. 1 in the first CFP rankings going into South Bend next month.

2. Ohio State

BCS score: 0.9576

No. 1 this week in the Massey Ratings and Sagarin, the Buckeyes might be a different team moving forward without Julian Sayin at quarterback. We'll wait and see before further assessing that, but what the computers will not do is downgrade a team due to injury before playing another game. That's for human opinion. Freshman Luke Fahey faces immense pressure to keep this going at Ohio State with the schedule intensifying at USC and a date with nationally-ranked Northwestern over the next three weeks.

3. Indiana

BCS score: 0.8408

The computers love Indiana. No bias here for the reigning national champions, who haven't exactly looked the part in Big Ten play, with three of their four wins coming by a single possession. The Hoosiers beat Michigan in overtime over the weekend despite completing only one pass after halftime, a first for a Curt Cignetti-coached team. The CFP committee will take a close look at the metrics involving Indiana before their debut rankings following Saturday's matchup in Bloomington against Minnesota.

4. Georgia

BCS score: 0.8364

The first of a nation-leading eight SEC teams inside the top 17 of BCS rankings, the Bulldogs' lone loss came against Auburn earlier this month as a three-touchdown favorite. Other than that, Georgia has controlled its opponents throughout and has a ranked win at Alabama. The sheer number of SEC teams in these rankings speaks to the league's latest strength-of-schedule metrics, which suggest the five toughest slates in the sport this season all reside in this conference.

5. Notre Dame

BCS score: 0.8043

As you can see, the Fighting Irish's loss at BYU in the final seconds didn't damage Notre Dame's overall value all that much -- at least not according to the BCS numbers. Marcus Freeman's squad gets back to the top-4 discussion if they beat Miami and SMU in November, adding quality wins Nos. 2 and 3 to the resume after beating now-ranked Wisconsin in Week 1. If Notre Dame finishes 10-2, we still believe this team makes the bracket. Nine wins and the Fighting Irish are out.

6. UCLA

BCS score: 0.7944

Computers love no marks in the loss column. The second of three unbeatens left in college football, the Bruins might be on the most uneven footing of the unblemished after losing quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season. UCLA's ranked win came against Wisconsin on Oct. 17, and the Bruins outlasted Oregon in a slugfest one week prior. USC is the only nationally-ranked opponent left for Bob Chesney's team, which means the Bruins could potentially lock in a top-4 CFP seed by winning out -- even if they fail to capture a Big Ten Championship the first weekend of December.

7. Utah

BCS score: 0.7730

The Utes drew a first-place vote in the AP poll this week despite an overall strength-of-schedule rating that is the worst among this top 10. The other 69 votes for college football's top team went to Miami (59) and Ohio State (10), who are light-years ahead of Utah in terms of roster talent but have the same number of top-25 wins as the Utes (1). If the Big 12 hopes to produce multiple playoff teams, Utah and BYU appear to be the biggest threats.

8. Kentucky

BCS score: 0.7091

Will Stein and the Wildcats lead the SEC after Week 8 -- that's not a misprint. Winners of six straight since losing to Alabama in the league opener, Kentucky's signature win came against LSU in overtime on Nov. 10. Should the Wildcats and Tigers both end 9-3 and be in the at-large discussion for one of the CFP's final spots, Kentucky has the head-to-head card it will be able to play. The Wildcats have three games left against teams currently ranked inside this BCS top 25 -- Tennessee, Florida and Missouri.

9. BYU

BCS score: 0.6017

Despite holding one of the nation's top wins this season after beating Notre Dame earlier this month, the Cougars' stumble at UCF over the weekend tanked their BCS score. Three other Big 12 programs are ranked this week -- Texas Tech, Houston and Arizona. BYU's upcoming trip to Utah on Nov. 7 is the league's most important game left on the schedule.

10. Alabama

BCS score: 0.6313

In the group of two-loss SEC teams, the Crimson Tide -- like the others -- can control their own CFP destiny by winning out this season. That's anything but simple, by the way, considering they travel to LSU on Nov. 7 and host Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 28. However, unlike a few others in the SEC ranked inside this top 15, Alabama does have a schedule more favorable than most. The lone ranked win for the Crimson Tide remains Kentucky since the blowout of Mississippi State a few weeks back hasn't aged well.

Rank	Team	BCS score
11.	Texas	0.6017
12.	LSU	0.5290
13.	Ole Miss	0.5138
14.	Texas Tech	0.4498
15.	Wake Forest	0.4320
16.	Tennessee	0.3542
17.	Florida	0.3154
18.	Houston	0.2503
19.	SMU	0.2338
20.	Arizona	0.2184
21.	Northwestern	0.2119
22.	Boise State	0.1847
23.	Missouri	0.1687
24.	Iowa	0.0929
25.	Wisconsin	0.0820

The only team in college football right now with three top-25 wins based on the latest AP poll, Texas should be designated as the top-two loss team. However, that's not how the computers view it, with Alabama ranked No. 10 and the Longhorns No. 11.

Texas has the No. 1 SOS nationally according to Massey, with Alabama at No. 2 and Ole Miss at No. 3.

Boise State is the only Group of Six team in the top 25 despite New Mexico, Oregon State and a few others having a say in how that portion of the CFP bracket will be decided next month. The Broncos' only loss came at Oregon in the season opener, and they're 6-0 since.

Wisconsin hopped in the AP poll this week for the first time after beating USC, which is nowhere to be found in the computer rankings. If the Badgers can stay ranked, it'll help Notre Dame's strength of record down the stretch.

As for USC, the Trojans host Ohio State this weekend, travel to Indiana in Week 11 and take on unbeaten UCLA in the regular-season finale. There's plenty of chances to impress the CFP Selection Committee -- and these computers -- over the next five weeks.