The new India-Pakistan ‘cold war’

Pakistani (left) and Indian border security soldiers take part in the now-famous daily parade at the Attari-Wagah border crossing, the primary international land route between the two nations. The elaborate ceremony has been held since 1959. | REUTERS

Oct 26, 2026

NEW DELHI – For decades, South Asia was locked in a perpetual cycle of conflict management: Brief military clashes between India and Pakistan would be followed by de-escalation and the resumption of formal peace talks, which eventually gave way to another bout of conflict.

But this pattern has now been broken. No high-level dialogue has taken place since 2016. Rather than some temporary diplomatic tantrum, this reflects a paradigm shift in Indian foreign policy, permanently altering the subcontinent’s security architecture.

The roots of this stalemate can be found in the structural failures of past diplomacy. In 1947, 1965 and 1971, Pakistan initiated conventional wars, none of which delivered the results it desired. The third resulted in the breakup of the country and the birth of independent Bangladesh.

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