Week 1 NFL betting guide, props, spreads: Model, expert, parlay, DFS and season-long fantasy picks unveiled

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SportsLine's team of Vegas experts and its proven model and experts to get you ready for Week 1 NFL betting

Sep 10, 2026 at 4:05 pm ET • 5 min read

The ultimate goal of any Week 1 NFL betting strategy is to win, and there are several quarterbacks who've done nothing but that versus their opening opponents. Dak Prescott has won 14 straight games he's started and finished versus the Giants, as Dallas (-3) is favored at New York, per the latest Week 1 NFL odds. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes owns a 13-2 record against the Broncos as the Chiefs are 2.5-point home favorites over Denver. Utilizing those two QBs in NFL player props or in Week 1 Fantasy football lineups could be some sage NFL betting advice, and you could also wager on their respective teams in a Week 1 NFL parlay. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review to see their latest offers and get started. Claim the latest Kalshi new user offer here:

Cowboys vs. Giants and Chiefs vs. Broncos are among half a dozen contests with spreads of 3 points or fewer at NFL betting sites. Meanwhile, Lions vs. Saints (+7), Jaguars vs. Browns (+8.5) and Chargers vs. Cardinals (+9.5) are the only three matchups with Week 1 NFL lines of at least a touchdown. If you are looking for NFL picks, NFL parlays, Fantasy football rankings or NFL DFS picks for Week 1, SportsLine has you covered with its proven model, Machine Learning Model and team of experts.

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NFL parlay picks could generate massive payouts

SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model has built a five-team parlay for Week 1 that pays nearly 25-1, and one of the legs is taking Over 48.5 points in Giants vs. Cowboys on Sunday night. The model has the Over hitting in nearly 70% of simulations, and the rest of the five-team parlay can be found here.

NFL DFS picks from daily Fantasy millionaire

Mike McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every snap of NFL action, taking factors such as matchups, statistical trends, and injuries into account. In 2023, he finished tied for first in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker twice and the FanDuel Million once. For the main Sunday slate in Week 1, McClure likes Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka as one of his top picks. Here are his complete Week 1 NFL DFS picks. 

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Fantasy rankings to help you win your matchups

SportsLine's model simulates every game 10,000 times, which has helped it produce better Fantasy rankings than human experts over the last few seasons. It has revealed its Week 1 Fantasy football rankings that can be used to make start-sit decisions. The Chargers' Ladd McConkey is projected to be a top-10 Fantasy wide receiver this week, and the model also has full rankings for every position right here.

Advanced NFL model simulates every game 10,000 times 

SportsLine's model enters Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. One of its favorite picks at the best betting apps is the Jaguars (-8.5, 40.5) covering versus Cleveland, which cashes well over 50% of the time. You can find the model's picks for every NFL Week 1 game here. 

NFL Vegas expert picks revealed 

SportsLine has an expansive team of NFL experts who provide quality betting advice for every game on the schedule. Doug "Prop Bet Guy", who is 69-47 (+1521) over his last 116 NFL player prop picks, is backing Panthers WR Jalen Coker Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114) versus Chicago.

"I like this Week 1 spot for Jalen Coker. After dealing with injuries to start his 2025, he finished by clearing this line in 5/7 games, which doesn't include his 132 yards in the Wild Card loss to the Rams. The Panthers did nothing of note to upgrade their pass catching corps this offseason, and Coker should be second in target and yard share to Tet McMillan. The matchup is ideal - the Bears offense is going to score in bunches, and their secondary is already very banged up to start the season. I have Coker projected at 45 yards - I'd bet this to over 40.5 yards." Doug's NFL props for Week 1 can be found here.

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Cowboys vs. Giants 'Sunday Night Football' picks

New York ended a nine-game losing streak to Dallas in Week 18 of last year, though the Cowboys pulled their starters at halftime. These NFC East rivals will meet again in their very next game on 'Sunday Night Football.' R.J. White, who is 35-23-1 (+1012) over his last 59 picks in Giants games, is backing New York (+3) to cover.

"A new era begins in New York with John Harbaugh running the show, but it makes sense why this line was bet up to 3 with the excitement around the Cowboys. However, at that number, I feel like we have to have value on a Giants offense that should be able to score points against a unit that, while seemingly improved, was terrible last season. I'm not ready to make the Cowboys three points better on a neutral field, so they're a fade on the road here." Get more 'Sunday Night Football' picks at SportsLine.

Chiefs vs. Broncos 'Monday Night Football' picks

Two quarterbacks who ended last season injured will make their returns on the opening 'Monday Night Football' contest as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs host Bo Nix and the Broncos. Thomas Casale, a betting analyst and frequent guest on CBS Sports HQ who is profitable across multiple sports, is backing Denver (+3) to cover.

"All the talk is about Patrick Mahomes returning for Week 1 but I'm more interested in the big uglies. I expect the Broncos to dominate this game in the trenches. Denver has my top-rated offensive line entering the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs could start undrafted Kahlil Benson at right tackle. Benson may end up being a good player but an undrafted free agent protecting a QB coming off an ACL injury in Week 1 isn't ideal. I give Denver's vaunted pass rush a big edge in this matchup and expect a lower-scoring game. I'll grab the +3 now in case the number goes down closer to kickoff." Get more 'Monday Night Football' picks at SportsLine.