Democrats are gaining ground. Could Trump still try to curb who can vote?

Five weeks from now, Americans will cast their ballots in the midterm elections to decide who controls Congress, and right now, Democrats have reason to be encouraged. Washington correspondents Katie Simpson, Willy Lowry and Paul Hunter take a look at where the midterm races are heating up, what's at stake for Republicans and Democrats, and just how worried Trump might be.

5 weeks from now, Americans will cast midterm ballots

CBC Radio

· Posted: Oct 01, 2026 11:37 AM EDT | Last Updated: 4 hours ago

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Five weeks from now, Americans will cast their ballots in the midterm elections to decide who controls Congress, and right now, Democrats have reason to be encouraged.

Some of the key Senate races are unfolding in Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska and Iowa. Democrats could gain roughly 20 seats in the House and about four or five in the Senate, according to Charlie Cook, founder of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. 

But the road to election day is anything but settled. As Republicans fight to hold on to Congress, questions are growing about how far the Trump administration could go to shape the election — including the rules around who gets to vote.

Last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for states to use an expanded federal database to check voter rolls, granting President Donald Trump a temporary win in his campaign against non-citizen voting. 

So what could the decision mean for the midterms, and what other steps could Trump take before voters head to the polls?

Washington correspondents Katie Simpson, Willy Lowry and Paul Hunter take a look at where the midterm races are heating up, what's at stake for Republicans and Democrats, and just how worried Trump might be.  

WATCH | Will the Democrats sweep the U.S. midterms? :

We've included some highlights below, edited for length and clarity. Listen to the full podcast discussion here.

Paul Hunter: With all these numbers and polls pointing toward Democrats, I think a lot of people worry, ‘Is Trump gonna push extra hard in other ways to try to salvage a win out of all this?’ 

A lot of talk centres around whether Trump will claim voter fraud and whether he will take steps to change the way people vote to the benefit of Republicans. 

What do you know about that? 

Willy Lowry: He set the scene for that over the summer when he had that primetime address, which raised all of these concerns that the administration had over election integrity. 

Much of them were eventually refuted over the course of the preceding days, but he is already trying to plant the seeds of doubt for sure. The Supreme Court, recently, is going to allow something that the administration called for, which is to allow states to use a new system of data that combines citizenship information with social security number and other sensitive data points to try and essentially hunt out illegal voters. 

But the Supreme Court [is] also ruling against the administration, which was trying to use the postal service to screen ballots after they were submitted by the state election officials. 

The Supreme Court's saying [that] introducing new rules around mail-in ballots at this point would have wreaked havoc, sowed chaos, [therefore] denying the administration's request. 

Katie Simpson: Donald Trump has a clearcut history of trying to undermine integrity in elections, so that if there is a result he doesn't like, that perhaps no one believes the result. 

Look what happened after January 6, and he's set himself up to continue that pattern heading into the midterm elections as the polls do not look to be in his favor. 

With all of these complicated things that the federal government is trying to do to insert itself into these elections — which as a reminder to Canadians, they are actually run by individual states, not the federal government. 

[So] why would the federal government — or the Trump administration — want these states to have this information? It's to possibly knock people off voter registration so that they can't vote or they have to sign up or that maybe they missed their deadline. 

In one county, in Texas, there is an example where people were erroneously knocked off a voter list. 

Is this the Trump administration trying to make it harder for people to vote, who might not want to vote for the Trump administration? Is it easier for the Republicans to win should fewer people show up or they're disenfranchised to vote? Is the Trump administration gonna do something by sending ICE agents or military officials to polling stations, which they cannot [legally] do.

Paul Hunter: Is Trump losing, or are Democrats winning? Or can both be true? What are Democrats doing to win this thing?

Katie Simpson: This is a moment for the Democrats to try and determine which route they're going to go in 2028. 

They've got a slate of really progressive candidates, they've got a slate of more moderate candidates, and depending on the outcome and who can get elected, I think it's really going to be the litmus test for which route they go for candidates to be the presidential candidate in 2028. 

Also, this is not specific to the Democrats, but it really applies to the Democrats, given the track record of the party over the past decade or so: don't underestimate the ability of a party with a lead to screw up a lead. The polls may suggest that the Democrats are gonna do very well … but there is so much time, and we don't know whether the Trump administration is gonna have any ability to disenfranchise voters. 

Willy Lowry: At this point, the Democrats’ best strategy is a little bit [of] ‘Get out the way and let this all unfold — let the price of gas keep rising.’ 

I don't view it as a vote against Trump, because I think he still holds a really captivating sway over the Republican Party, and yet, it is a vote against his agenda and his policy decisions. 

In particular, the U.S.-Iran war — not only was it a betrayal of a campaign pledge to avoid wars, but more importantly, it is having that direct impact on Americans' wallets, and I think that's what this is about.