PN's surrender of Melaka seats to MCA weakens BN leverage in Pas states

KUALA LUMPUR: The compromise that settled MCA's seat dispute in Melaka could put Barisan Nasional under pressure to return the favour when electoral negotiations shift to Pas strongholds, analysts say.

International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said Perikatan Nasional's surrender of Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana to MCA could raise expectations for BN to make reciprocal concessions in Pas-dominated states.

She said this could shape negotiations in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis, collectively known as the SG4 states.

"Since PN is giving in to MCA, there might be an expectation that BN would also allow PN to prioritise their parties up north, where there are better chances for PN than BN," she told the New Straits Times.

Syaza said both coalitions needed to project strength in negotiations, with the fluid nature of their relationship explaining why they were maintaining an electoral understanding rather than formalising cooperation.

The adjustment raised MCA's allocation from two to four seats, leaving PN with five of the seven seats initially set aside for the coalition.

Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said BN's bargaining power in Melaka rested on its position as the incumbent and stronger negotiating partner, allowing it to insist on retaining the 21 seats it previously won.

In Kedah, he said, Pas' dominance could require BN to concede more. Terengganu would present an even sharper test of whether protecting previously won seats was a workable basis for cooperation.

"BN did not give up seats it had won previously in Melaka.

"So would Pas then give no seats in Terengganu, for example, to BN?" he said, adding that wider negotiations could involve trade-offs between BN and Pas strongholds.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the MCA settlement showed compromise remained possible, but its earlier protest had exposed dissatisfaction over consultation, representation and seat allocation.

He said BN could not expect the Melaka formula to apply in Pas strongholds, especially in seats held by Pas, as cooperation required reciprocal concessions rather than unilateral demands.

"I believe both sides are maintaining an electoral understanding rather than forming a formal coalition because questions over seat distribution, leadership and their component parties' interests remain unresolved," he said.

Such flexibility allowed them to cooperate where their interests converged, Tawfik said, but the 16th General Election would involve much broader and more complicated negotiations.