Forget Burnham's election denials - it's all a bluff. Put a circle around next May in your diary: DAN HODGES

Andy Burnham was categoric. Asked on Friday if he could confirm an election would not be called until 2029, he said: ‘Well, yes, that’s when the next election will be. All of this speculation on an early election, I can knock that dead.’

Andy Burnham was telling porkies. Nothing has been knocked on the head.

Preparations for a 2027 election are continuing. Indeed, they are accelerating.

Last week, a group of senior Labour Party donors gathered at Downing Street. They had been summoned by Lord (Waheed) Alli, the Prime Minister’s senior fundraiser.

The purpose of the gathering was to present them with private polling conducted by Hayden Munro, the PM’s political director. According to one person acquainted with the meeting: ‘Hayden set out the latest numbers. They were all very positive – in particular Andy’s personal ratings. Hayden was upbeat.’

Someone then asked about what that meant for the timing of the election. According to my source: ‘Hayden told them, “Obviously there will not be a general election before 2029.” But then he gave everyone a sly grin.’

The meeting – and grin – are significant for a number of reasons. First of all, because the presentation was convened by Lord Alli, who was embroiled in the cash-for-access scandal that derailed Keir Starmer’s first months in office.

When The Mail on Sunday reported three weeks ago that Lord Alli had been brought back into the Downing Street inner circle, a number of MPs questioned the decision. But as a minister explained: ‘If you’re going for a snap election, you haven’t got time to put a whole new fundraising structure in place. You have to go with what you have. And the reality is Lord Alli owns a lot of those relationships. So Andy didn’t really have any choice.’

Preparations for a 2027 general election are accelerating, according to Dan Hodges, despite Andy Burnham insisting that the country will not go to the polls until 2029

When The Mail on Sunday reported three weeks ago that Lord Alli had been brought back into the Downing Street inner circle, a number of MPs questioned the decision

The other significant thing was that the gathering happened at all. My understanding is it was partly convened to leverage Reform’s own announcement of a staggering £72million donation from two foreign-based crypto-billionaires. But the primary reason was that Labour needs an urgent boost to its election coffers.

‘You have to remember, we drained the bath for 2024,’ one party insider told me, ‘and we were working on the basis we wouldn’t have to fill it up again until 2028.’

It’s clear that despite the strident denials, the Prime Minister isn’t planning on waiting that long. According to senior Labour sources, November will see the publication of Burnham’s vaunted ten-year plan. Or what is seen by many as the draft manifesto.

According to one official: ‘That’s basically going to be the masterplan for national recovery. When it’s published everyone will see where Andy is going. No one will be able to say, “We don’t know what he stands for” any more.’

A minister revealed that while the document has been drafted in consultation with a number of key allies, it is primarily Burnham’s own work.

‘He’s been the guy holding the pen,’ they revealed. ‘He will talk to people like his chief of staff James Purnell but it’s his agenda. He’s leading everything. It’s not like with Keir where everything except foreign policy was left to other people. Andy takes control.’

Taking control is going to be a central theme of the Prime Minister’s conference speech this week. And next year’s general election campaign. A deliberate appropriation of the Leave campaign’s winning slogan in the Brexit referendum, it will be used to underpin specific policy proposals, including a rewriting of the law to bring a number of major public utilities – in particular the water companies – back under the direction of the Government. But it will also be broadened out to address what Burnham believes is one of the main anxieties of the British people.

‘When Andy was campaigning in Makerfield, it was what struck him most,’ a friend revealed.

‘The fact that ordinary people felt they had no control over their lives. That everything was being imposed upon them. And that they had no influence or no say.

‘That’s why devolution is so important to him.’

In the wake of Friday’s statement, Burnham’s opponents were quick to accuse the Prime Minister of ‘bottling it’. But privately they recognise nothing has actually changed.

‘He had to say that,’ one senior Tory official told me. ‘Otherwise his whole conference would have been dominated by constant questions about the election. Nothing else would have been able to cut through. We’re still preparing for an election next year.’

The ‘tell’ that revealed Burnham’s announcement was merely to ensure Labour’s annual gathering in Liverpool was not consumed by a cloud of election chaff was his insistence no poll would be held until 2029. Had he simply ruled out a dash to the Palace this year, his statement would have retained credibility. But no Prime Minister seriously binds their hands by confirming the election date three years in advance.

Many Labour MPs are nervous about the election planning. But one who represents a marginal seat was resigned to what’s approaching. ‘The strategy is pretty obvious,’ they said.

‘You can see all the blocks falling into place. Conference. Budget. Manifesto. Head into the New Year with all the momentum. Then it’s just a matter of timing.’

A minister agreed. ‘The key moment will be the publication of the ten-year plan. Andy’s already said that for now he will work within Keir’s manifesto. So the ten-year plan basically locks him in.

‘He has to call an election relatively soon after it’s published. Or what’s he going to say to the country? “I’ve got this great plan to make your lives better. But sorry, you’ll all have to wait till 2029 before I start to implement it”.’

The past week in Westminster has been dominated by an analysis of the YouGov ‘mega poll’ which showed Reform’s support collapsing, the Tories bouncing back to second place and Labour reclaiming their lead as the largest party. Within Reform it created despondency, among the Tories jubilation.

But within government it was met with little more than a shrug. ‘It’s not told us anything we didn’t already know,’ one minister revealed. ‘And when you factor in tactical voting, it puts us pretty close to an overall majority.

‘The thing everyone is watching is Holborn [the by-election being held on October 8, where Labour is hoping to defeat Greens leader Zack Polanski].

‘If we win that it shows the strategy of reuniting the Left is paying off. And once that happens, then with the Right still split, 2027 is a no-brainer.’

In March 2024, Rishi Sunak announced he would not be calling an election. A few weeks later, he did. Andy Burnham is bluffing. Circle May 2027 in your diary.