Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks, advice, strategy: NFL expert reveals best knockout pick, teams to avoid

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.

SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert R.J. White reveals his knockout pool strategy and top Week 1 NFL survivor pick

Sep 10, 2026 at 3:35 pm ET • 3 min read

The Patriots ended last season in the Super Bowl, but they began the season with a home loss to the lowly Raiders. Many had New England in their Week 1 NFL survivor pools in 2025, but that result should serve as a warning that there are no guarantees when it comes to NFL knockout picks. If you already picked Seattle to knock off New England to start this year, you're in good standing in NFL survivor pools. But if not, which teams should be on your radar with Week 1 NFL survivor picks now that the season is underway?

New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review to see their latest offers and get started. Claim the latest Kalshi new user offer here:

Just three teams are favored by more than 5.5 points in their 2026 season openers in the Lions (-7) vs. Saints, Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Browns and Chargers (-9.5) vs. Cardinals. Should you back one of them, or roll the dice a bit and try to set yourself up for more success later in the season? Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, you need to see which team proven expert R.J. White is backing.

White has been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last nine years, going 803-705-41 against the spread to put him up more than 27 units on those picks at NFL betting sites since 2017. He has also delivered a 55% hit rate on his Vegas contest picks over the last 11 seasons and has two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017. He knows the NFL at a level that few do, making him the perfect expert to give NFL survivor pool strategy tips. 

Now, White has turned his attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in his Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who White is backing this week at SportsLine.

Trade the NFL at Polymarket here:

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

White has studied his 2026 NFL Week 1 survivor options, and, after evaluating not only this week but the rest of the season, he suggests avoiding the Chargers versus the Cardinals desipte the fact that the Chargers will likely be the consensus selection. L.A. is a 9.5-point favorite (-526 on the money line), which is a point clear of any other team. Not only does Los Angeles have several appetizing matchups down the road, including in Week 2 against the Raiders, but the Chargers lost to Arizona the last time they played (2024) despite being favored.

There's also the fact that Los Angeles is breaking in what is, essentially, an entire new offensive line compared to last season. Left tackle Joe Alt played just six games in 2025, while right tackle Rashawn Slater missed the entire year. The three interior linemen are all new additions, and no group needs time to develop continuity quite like the offensive line. 

Add in that Justin Herbert was sacked the third-most times last year, and Arizona added Josh Sweat, who's coming off a 12-sack season, and that doesn't make Los Angeles the optimal play with your Week 1 NFL survivor pools. That's especially against an Arizona team that could have a lot of Week 1 surprises, such as last year when one of its three victories came in Week 1 on the road at New Orleans. White notes that there's another team that has less future value on the board this week, so he's going to save the Chargers for later in the season. See which team to pick instead here. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, White says to go deep you'll need to "be comfortable with taking early risks," and he's found a surprising team to jump on in Week 1 that he says has "slightly less future value." The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which team is a must-back in your Week 1 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from SportsLine's top NFL expert all time.