Drought forecast to hit more areas until March 2027 – Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — More areas are forecast to experience drought from October 2026 to March 2027 as the El Niño continues to prevail in the country, the state weather bureau said on Wednesday.

In the climate outlook of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), weather specialist Junie Ruiz noted that less rainfall in the country is expected during this period.

Pagasa recently declared the end of southwest monsoon or “habagat” season and observed weaker winds and declining rainfall associated with the weather system. 

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READ: ‘Very strong El Niño’ to persist in PH until early 2027 – Pagasa

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Drought

Ruiz said that six provinces in Luzon and Visayas will experience drought in October and November.

Pagasa defines drought as three consecutive months of receiving way below normal rainfall.

Ruiz added that drought may prevail in 17 areas by December, 45 areas in January 2027, 78 areas in February 2027, and 84 areas in March 2027. 

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Strong El Niño

He also said that a strong El Niño remains present in the tropical Pacific.

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He added that this phenomenon may reach a very strong state by the end of 2026 and will continue until the first half of 2027. 

Tropical cyclone forecast

Despite the presence of El Niño, he said that three to five tropical cyclones are expected to enter or form inside the Philippine area of responsibility from October this year to March 2027. 

One or two tropical cyclones are expected from October to December, one in January, while there is a slim chance of tropical cyclone formation for February and March next year. 

READ: DOE: El Niño may hike power rates, outages

“May El Niño tayo kaya posible ang mas kaunting ulan at mas mainit na temperature sa mga susunod na buwan. Pero patuloy pa rin nating babantayan ang mga weather system na magdadala ng maraming ulan sa bahagi ng bansa gaya ng ITCZ [intertropical convergence zone], shear line, amihan, and tropical cyclones,” he said. 

(The El Niño is prevailing now, that’s why we can expect less rainfall and hotter temperatures in the next months. But we continue to monitor weather systems that will bring rains in the country, such as ITCZ, shear line, northeast monsoon, and tropical cyclones.)

El Niño impact

The Department of Agriculture earlier said that El Niño has already affected 223,214 farmers in 14 regions in the country, with damage in the agriculture sector already reaching around P6.87 billion. 

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The phenomenon has already placed 106 cities and municipalities across the country under a state of calamity, according to the latest report of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.  /gsg