PAS unlikely to ditch Wawasan, PN for Umno, say analysts

PAS is unlikely to abandon Perikatan Nasional, particularly coalition partner Wawasan, just to form an alliance with Umno in the next general election (GE16), say political analysts.

Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PAS was more likely to keep its options open by cooperating with Barisan Nasional while maintaining ties with its PN partners.

“PAS will not rush to abandon Wawasan … PAS may prefer cooperation with BN while working closely with members of PN, except Bersatu,” he told FMT.

While PAS would have greater electoral incentives to work only with Umno, Sivamurugan said leaving PN altogether could complicate the Islamic party’s Malay-Muslim unity narrative.

“The real test is whether PAS sees ummah unity as a broader principle to work with other parties or primarily as a strategic cooperation with Umno,” he said.

In any case, Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said, Umno could be eyeing seats currently held by Wawasan. Given this scenario, failing to agree on who gets these seats could lead to BN going it alone in GE16, he added.

“If neither BN nor PN is prepared to give way or they fail to reach a compromise, PAS and Wawasan could ultimately remain together while Umno contests on its own,” he told FMT.

Awang Azman said it would be difficult for PAS to simply abandon PN, describing talk of such a move as “possible rhetorical manoeuvring” ahead of the Melaka state election.

“Put it simply, PAS is just talking about leaving PN without actually intending to do so,” he said.

He pointed out that PAS is largely behind the rise of Wawasan. “Wawasan is a project under PAS leaders. So, it is difficult to see PAS simply abandoning Wawasan.”

Wawasan is largely helmed by former Bersatu leaders such as opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, Beluran MP Ronald Kiandee and Masjid Tanah MP Mas Ermieyati Samsudin. These leaders were themselves originally in Umno.

PN, which is led by PAS, has reportedly been given 30 days to submit representations to the Registrar of Societies (RoS) or face deregistration.

PAS’s Sura assemblyman Dr Tengku Fakhruddin Tengku Fauzi appeared unfazed by the reports, saying in a Facebook post: “We have PAS”.

Days earlier Bersatu leader Dr Afif Bahardin raised the possibility of PAS leaving PN to establish a formal political alliance with Umno-BN. Afif said Bersatu was prepared to lead PN again if that comes to pass.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s political aide Syahir Sulaiman had dismissed Afif’s remarks, saying the issue of PN’s leadership must be decided by the coalition’s supreme council.

Umno has indicated that it prefers to hold talks on a possible GE16 alliance directly with PAS rather than with PN.

Anything is possible

Unlike Sivamurugan and Awang Azman, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali believes the possibility of PAS eventually choosing Umno over its existing coalition partners cannot be ruled out.

He said cooperation with Umno would offer PAS greater political returns, particularly as both parties could sell a Malay-Muslim unity narrative to Malay voters.

Despite decades of rivalry, Mazlan said, the country’s two largest Malay-Muslim parties have shown through the defunct Muafakat Nasional that they could work together when their interests converged.

Separately, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Umno would need PAS in both the Melaka state polls and GE16. However, he does not expect Hadi’s party to ditch the multi-racial Wawasan outright.

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