Alberta predicting 2026 budget surplus thanks to oil prices, Middle East war
Alberta’s finances are swinging back into the black after war in the Middle East sent global energy prices surging.
The province’s latest fiscal update for the 2026 Alberta budget predicts a $2-billion surplus — a huge turnaround from the $9.4-billion deficit originally expected for the fiscal year.
It’s the latest reversal of fortune for the oil-rich province perennially tied to international energy markets.
Alberta budget 2026 comes with some spending hikes but also a $9.4B deficit
Six months ago, the province anticipated West Texas Intermediate – the North American benchmark oil price — would average US$60.50 a barrel this year.
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Two days after the province introduced its February budget, the U.S.-Iran conflict began, choking off oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
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Since April, the province estimates the price of WTI has averaged just above US$88 per barrel.
With every dollar increase in the average WTI price, Alberta’s treasury stands to gain $680 million.
Finance Minister Jason Nixon celebrated the quarterly windfall as good news, but warned the forecast could just as quickly take another turn.
“Energy prices can change quickly, trade uncertainty is real, and every dollar spent on debt is a dollar taken away from classrooms, hospitals and families,” he said.
But the same prices that are padding the government’s coffers are also driving up the cost of living.
Alberta sees massive spike in oil royalties amid Iran conflict
In June, Premier Danielle Smith announced $100 fuel tax rebate cheques for most Albertans, instead of the province reducing its tax on gasoline at the pumps.
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Nixon didn’t commit to another round, but said cabinet is mulling its options to try to find relief for Albertans.
He added that amid the ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States, counter-tariffs could drive even more price increases.
“We’re watching inflation,” he said.
For the latest budget numbers to pan out, WTI would have to average US$73.50 per barrel over twelve months, or US$65 for the remainder of the year, which ends next March.
The government’s year-end results for 2025-26 have been delayed, but officials are anticipating the latest revenue bump will more than erase that year’s $4.1-billion projected deficit.
Nixon said the United Conservative government’s massive health-care restructuring has created an accounting challenge, with newly-created government organizations needing time to match up with the provincial budget.
But, he said, he’s confident the UCP will also report a surplus for that year.
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