Why a new round in the U.S.-Iran conflict could be the most devastating yet

The warning signs are flashing red with indications that once the ballots are counted in the U.S. midterm elections, the United States and Israel will relaunch their war with Iran. 

The next round of attacks could be more devastating than the first, warn analysts.

"A renewed war seems almost inevitable," said Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli Middle East and Iran analyst whose earlier warnings and cautions about the risks of a direct conflict with Iran were largely borne out by events.

Citrinowicz, who worked for Israel's military as an intelligence official for more than two decades, had initially warned that any U.S. and Israeli attack on the Islamic regime would not likely lead to regime change but would instead end up engulfing the entire region in a wider conflict — an assessment that proved true.

In an interview with CBC News, he said that assessment still holds.

"The problem is there is no silver bullet solution to the impasse we are now at in the Persian Gulf and in front of Trump he has only bad and worse options."

Under U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, their countries broke with decades of restraint and shadow warfare and launched two distinct wars with Iran over the past 18 months. 

Iranian women look at a building, which was damaged in a U.S. and Israeli strike in March, in Tehran on Aug. 22. (Reuters)

The first in June 2025 began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, lasted 12 days and ended with a fragile ceasefire. 

The conflict roared back to life in February of this year following a massive U.S. military buildup in the region. It began with Israel's strikes against Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Worst round yet

Citrinowicz, who's with Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, said a third round of war could be the worst yet, based on what Iranian officials are telegraphing.

"They will attack the energy facilities in the Gulf. But more than that, they will cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure, communications, as well as cutting off the internet lines going under [the] Hormuz Strait," he said.

He said there is even a possibility that Iran could push some of its massive land army into the fight with limited assaults against Gulf countries that house U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain. 

"We'll see a regional war with Iran investing a lot in attacking the U.S. presence in the region to cause maximum economical damage to the U.S. international economy."

Smoke rises from a burning vessel, following what the U.S. Central Command said was a strike on an Iranian-affiliated dhow, at a location given as the Gulf of Oman, in this still image taken from a video released on Oct. 14. (U.S. Central Command/Reuters)

Midterm dynamics

While both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes against each other's bases or territory since the summer truce collapsed, the conflict remains active. The U.S. imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran has continued to target commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy costs.

Posting on Truth Social Thursday, Trump blamed Iran for trying to artificially drive up oil prices ahead of the midterms on Nov. 3, elections that many pollsters believe will see Trump's Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well.  

"They are even making up fake hits, mines and everything else," said Trump, implying that Iran is exaggerating the extent of the damage it's causing.

A report published this week by the Washington, D.C.,-based Critical Threats Project alongside the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also suggested Iran is trying to use strikes on shipping to weaken Trump's position heading into the elections.

"The increase in Iranian attacks on vessels is part of the ongoing Iranian campaign to pressure the United States to meet Iranian demands, including control over the Strait, by driving up global prices," the report said.

People walk on the beach, with vessels in the Strait of Hormuz visible near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Oct. 13. (Razieh Poudat West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

Iran's demands

Iran's government wants relief from punishing sanctions, reparations for the damage caused by earlier U.S.-Israel strikes, the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and the right to keep its supplies of enriched uranium. 

Mediators with Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to push diplomatic solutions to get the two sides talking again, but to no avail.

For both Netanyahu and Trump, the war with Iran remains unfinished business.

• Iran says 7 ships have been struck in Strait of Hormuz, Saudis intercept drones in airspace

• Iran's president says country won't surrender after Trump threat to 'annihilate' Islamic republic

The Islamic regime not only remains in power, but its leadership has also proven remarkably adept at adapting to both the military strikes and the economic blockade imposed by the West.

"The war in some respects has probably persuaded Iran's leadership to double down on their commitment to the revolutionary ideology that has really forged this regime," said Suzanne Maloney, a vice-president and director of the foreign policy program at the Washington, D.C.,-based Brookings Institution.

Like Citroniwicz, she said if war resumes, Trump won't be able to easily contain it.

"The retaliation as we've seen will come not just from Iran, but from its proxies and partners in the region," she said, referring to the Houthi militias in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran's goal won't just be to hit back at U.S. military targets but also soft economic targets, such as airports, that could undermine Gulf countries for years to come, she said.

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Maloney and Karim Sadjadpour, a prominent Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, were speaking on an online Carnegie panel about the future of the war in Iran. 

"I genuinely don't think that President Trump has a clear idea in his head what he's trying to achieve," said Sadjadpour. 

"I don't see any possibility of what Trump is looking for — which is like a knockout punch, a military strike — which will essentially force the Iranians into a compromise or capitulation."

Nuclear timeline?

Trump claimed his justification for the initial attacks on Iran was to ensure the country doesn't get a nuclear weapon. 

At the time, while Iran possessed enough enriched uranium to theoretically pursue a weapon, many independent experts and U.S. intelligence sources believed it was still likely months away from doing so — and perhaps more importantly, that the regime's supreme leader had not yet made the definitive political decision to cross the nuclear threshold.

Since those initial June 2025 strikes, the human cost of the war has been severe.  

Western NGOs claim the death toll in Iran is well over 7,000, including civilians and government figures who have been killed in the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Lebanon has also suffered an especially heavy toll, with local media reporting more than 4,000 fatalities.

Twenty-one U.S. service members were killed, mostly by Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf, while more than 70 Israelis have died.

People drive near a billboard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump on a building in Tehran on Sept. 16. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters)

There have also been deaths throughout the Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as in Iraq and Yemen.

The New York Times and other U.S. media are reporting the Pentagon is working on a new battle plan for the possible next round of attacks — but whether Trump will ultimately authorize it is unknown.

'Finishing the job'

Israel's leadership, on the other hand, has made no secret of its push to restart the conflict, with Netanyahu explicitly stating his desire to bring down the Iran regime by "finishing the job." 

Netanyahu faces Israeli voters in the coming days, and whether he hangs onto his job could end up in a photo finish. 

• Netanyahu faces fresh allegations he ignored warnings about Oct. 7 — right before an election

Relaunching the war with Iran could offer him a tactical way to stay in power; even if his party loses seats, a widening security crisis could lead to the creation of an emergency unity government with members of the opposition, said Citrinowicz.

"The real risk is that Netanyahu will involve his political considerations together with some other operational development in Iran that he is going to not necessarily invent, but probably [inflate]," he said.

A shopkeeper works at his shop in a local market in Tehran on Sept. 26. (Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

"And this combination will lead to an unnecessary attack against Iran."

Sadjadpour from the Carnegie panel said there is no obvious military way out of the impasse and says Trump's maximalist goals have closed down diplomatic options as well.

"I believe there's a pretty clear formula under which it [Iran's government] compromises," said Sadjadpour. "It's when it faces what I would describe as existential economic pressure, coupled with a clear, limited diplomatic exit.

"If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed."