Quebec referendum is unlikely under PQ minority government, say political watchers

Winning a minority government with just 28 per cent of the vote puts the Parti Québécois in uncharted territory.

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“It’s exceptional; we’ve never seen that in Quebec, certainly, that a party can win enough seats to form government with such low numbers,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University.

“It’s a relatively strong minority government, in a sense. But we know that minority governments have a lower life expectancy.”

Monday’s outcome means the separatist PQ likely won’t be pushing for a referendum on leaving Canada any time soon, say political watchers.

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The party won 59 of the National Assembly’s 127 seats and will need support from some members of the three opposition parties to reach 64 votes and get legislation passed.

The PQ held just seven seats when the writ dropped.

Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP as he is known, has said he will wait to hold a referendum on Quebec independence until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029.

“Considering the average life expectancy of a minority government in Quebec, or even in Canada in general, it’s not sure (the PQ will still be in office when Trump makes his exit),” Béland said. “And that’s an issue that will be front of mind” for the governing party.

“The minority government renders a referendum on independence much less likely,” said André Lecours, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa.

Sébastien Dallaire, chief insights officer with Leger Marketing, agreed that we’re unlikely to “see a push for a referendum, especially not in the near future.”

Would it be possible “to create the winning conditions in the current context?” Dallaire said. “Right now, it looks unlikely.”

It wouldn’t be “impossible,” for the PQ to “pull the trigger on a referendum with the support of the Québec Solidaire,” Béland said.

“But Québec Solidaire and the PQ, although they both support the independence of Quebec, they don’t see the process leading to independence in the same way.”

Dallaire pointed out that about half of those who voted for Québec Solidaire “are not in favour of sovereignty.”

It would “likely be very hard for Québec Solidaire to convince their voters and their base that now is the time to go into a referendum period,” Dallaire said.

“It would be very tricky for Québec Solidaire to form a formal alliance with the PQ to push for a referendum.”

Québec Solidaire won nine seats Monday, compared to 11 in the last election.

“Québec Solidaire is a left-wing party, they’re pro-immigration, they are critical” of Quebec’s Bill 21, Béland said, while the PQ wants to “double down” on the provincial law enforcing state secularism that prohibits some public-sector workers from wearing religious symbols at work.

“These are very different political animals, these two parties, so in some areas they could collaborate. But in other areas the most logical dance partner for the PQ minority government would be the Conservatives.”

Conservatives jumped from zero seats in 2022 to 19 on Monday.

“Conservatives could push the PQ even further to the right in terms of tax cuts and spending cuts,” Béland said.

“Because it’s a minority government Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will have to, as we say in French, put some water in his wine to compromise in order to get things done, in order to pass a budget.”

The Conservatives could prove “quite influential,” Béland said. “Because it’s unlikely that the official opposition, the Liberals, will collaborate that much with the PQ.”

The Liberals jumped from 19 seats to 40 in Monday’s election.

“They were able to regain a lot of their old strongholds” in the Outaouais, Montreal’s South Shore and Lavalle, said Lecours, pointing out they also took a Quebec City riding.

“They’re starting to make some headway in Francophone Quebec,” he said.

Under the leadership of Christine Fréchette, the Coalition Avenir Québec — which formed a majority government in 2022 with 90 seats under former Premier François Legault — was reduced to zero seats.

The CAQ had “a horrible night” on Monday, Dallaire said.

The “complete wipeout” is unheard of “for a party that had a super majority,” he said. “Is there a tomorrow for the CAQ? That’s a question that a lot of people are asking today.”

Conservatives may well replace the CAQ as an alternative to the Liberals and the PQ, who have dominated since the 1970s, Dallaire said.

“Could the Conservatives now really establish themselves as the third option? That’s the hope after the win (Monday) night. We’ll see how things evolve in coming months.”

He expects a “rocky political environment” as the National Assembly is flooded with “rookies.”

“Close to 80 per cent of MNAs are new in this assembly,” Dallaire said. “So, it’s going to be a lot of learning and it’s going to be learning on the fly in a minority government situation where you need to collaborate and you need to compromise.”

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