Middle East conflict and reduced demand behind drop in small boat crossings, report says

Heightened law enforcement operations and falling demand among migrants were major drivers behind the decline in small boat arrivals to the UK during the first half of this year, according to a new report.

Selected excerpts from the evaluation were made public on Monday by the National Crime Agency (NCA), the body tasked with tackling organised immigration crime.

The organisation declined to release the complete assessment, explaining that the document contains "sensitive intelligence".

According to the findings, conflict in the Middle East and targeted police action disrupted the supply chains used to source boats.

Coupled with intervention from authorities, these factors combined with lower migrant demand to drive down overall arrival numbers.

NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said: “The NCA is devoting more resource to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before, and that is bringing results.

“Alongside our partners on both sides of the Channel we are making it more difficult and costlier for people smuggling networks to source equipment, more difficult to get it to the beaches and in the water, more difficult to communicate with potential customers, and more likely smugglers will be confronted by law enforcement.

“However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done. We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel.”

In the first six months of 2026, the number of people arriving in the UK by small boat fell 41% and the number of boats 47% compared to the previous year.

The number of arrests linked to organised immigration crime in the year to the end of April 2026 rose by more than 55%, and since late 2023 more than 1,600 boats or engines have been seized.

Since 2021, around 40,000 posts, pages or accounts linked to people smuggling have also been removed from social media.

Minister for border security and asylum Anna Turley said: “New analysis shows that we are making it harder for the criminal gangs to operate.

“With crossings down significantly on last year, and the lowest arrivals over the summer for six years, our plan is bearing fruit.

“We have boosted officer numbers on French beaches, seized more than 1,100 small boats and engines and are reducing the pull factors drawing migrants across the Channel.

“This includes making refugee status temporary, cracking down on illegal working and returning more people without the right to be here.

“But we are not complacent. We will continue our relentless efforts to prevent these dangerous crossings and put those responsible behind bars.”

It comes after seven police officers "were assaulted" during an anti-migrant demonstration in Portsmouth, according to the chairman of the Hampshire Police Federation, as anxieties heighten over wider far-right protests and disorder throughout the UK.

Fewer than 48 hours after masked vigilantes blockaded roads in Dover, roughly 200 black-clad activists gathered in Portsmouth, where a small boat with 140 asylum seekers on board was intercepted off the coast on Sunday evening.

In an ensuing standoff with police, a section of the protesters tried to prevent the newly arrived migrants from being driven away, attacking officers and vehicles.

He said: “We’ve had several officers that were assaulted, obviously during that incident. The number is seven officers.

“Thankfully, there’s no major injuries, but we’ve seen a plethora of different injuries caused in different ways. There’s been a lot of criminal damage as well as the assault on my colleagues.

“What we saw was people breaking the law, assaulting officers, causing damage to property, and I’m sure for those residents in that area, that must be quite a frightening experience.”