Kenya Met forecasts rain in several counties as El Niño concerns grow

The Kenya Meteorological Department has released a 24-hour weather forecast covering several parts of the country, valid from 9pm on Friday, September 11, to 9pm on Saturday, September 12, 2026.

The forecast, issued by Acting Director Edward Muriuki and shared through the department’s official channels, indicates that most parts of the country will remain generally dry, although some areas are expected to receive rainfall.

“Most parts of the country are expected to remain generally dry. Rainfall is expected in some parts of Kericho, Kakamega, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Murang’a, Meru, Embu, Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale counties,” Kenya Met stated.

Nairobi and Central Kenya

Nairobi is expected to experience partly cloudy conditions on Friday night, with light showers possible in a few areas.

Saturday morning will remain cloudy, with a chance of light rain before conditions improve into sunny intervals in the afternoon. A few isolated showers may still occur.

Temperatures in Nairobi are expected to range from a low of 14°C to a high of 24°C.

In the Mount Kenya region, Meru is likely to experience more active weather, with light showers forecast during the night, Saturday morning and again in the afternoon. Temperatures will range between 13°C and 24°C.

Embu is expected to receive light showers overnight and on Saturday morning before sunny intervals emerge in the afternoon. Temperatures will range from 15°C to 26°C.

Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Nyeri are expected to experience a similar pattern, with light morning rainfall giving way to brighter conditions later in the day.

Tharaka-Nithi and Machakos will have partly cloudy conditions at night, followed by cloudy skies and sunny intervals on Saturday.

Kitui is also expected to experience light showers overnight, with mostly cloudy conditions in the morning before sunny intervals develop in the afternoon. Temperatures in Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi could reach highs of 27°C.

Western Kenya and Rift Valley

In western Kenya, Kisii and Nyamira are expected to have partly cloudy conditions overnight before mostly sunny weather on Saturday morning.

The two counties could, however, experience light showers and thunderstorms in a few areas during the afternoon.

Kisii is forecast to reach a maximum temperature of 29°C, while Nyamira could record a high of 28°C.

The forecast also covers parts of the Rift Valley and northern Kenya, including Nyandarua, Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Samburu and Turkana.

Weather conditions in these areas will vary, with some locations expected to experience partly cloudy nights followed by sunny intervals during the morning.

Coastal counties

Several coastal counties are also expected to receive rainfall during the forecast period.

Kenya Met listed Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale among the counties where some areas could experience rain.

The department, however, maintained that most parts of the country would remain generally dry during the 24-hour period.

18 counties flagged over El Niño flood risk

The latest forecast comes amid growing attention to the possibility of an El Niño event later in the year.

The government has identified 18 counties as being highly exposed to risks associated with a potentially strong El Niño event, which forecasters say could bring above-normal rainfall from October.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects could extend into early 2027.

A national risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) identified several potential hazards in the affected areas, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure.