As China embraces AI, only 24% of US pharma execs bet on it for drug-making

Pharmaceutical companies have embraced artificial intelligence in drug research almost universally, yet few company executives expect AI to actually make drugs succeed, according to a Citi survey released on Tuesday.

“The biggest risk to the AI-powered drug discovery thesis is not that AI fails to accelerate discovery,” said John Yung, head of Asia healthcare research at the US investment bank. “The stronger risk is that acceleration does not translate into better drugs or higher probability of success.”

“It’s only through that translation that companies can turn AI-driven speed into profit, and patients into real beneficiaries,” Yung added.

Some 72 per cent of respondents said their companies were either “scaling” or had “fully scaled” AI across research and development, and no company reported having no plans to adopt the technology, the survey found.

Yet that enthusiasm comes with a caveat. Only 24 per cent of respondents expect AI to deliver a significant improvement in drug success probability, while 56 per cent expect only a moderate uplift, “not a wholesale revolution,” according to the survey.

Another 34 per cent said human biology, clinical judgment and execution will remain as bottlenecks, regardless of how much AI is deployed.