The hard truth now is that the only way to avoid a hellish coalition of Left-wing chaos is for the Right to unite - behind Conservatives: DAN HODGES

It's over. Nigel Farage’s dream of becoming Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is finally dead.

Yesterday, the pollster YouGov produced its long anticipated MRP ‘mega poll’ of political opinion. Twelve months previously, the same survey rocked Westminster to its foundations by showing Reform within touching distance of an overall majority.

The new data paints another dramatic – if completed inverted – picture. This time last year Reform was on course for 311 seats, 167 ahead of Labour and 266 ahead of the Tories.

That support has imploded. If an election were held tomorrow, the survey of nearly 17,000 respondents shows Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats, more than 100 seats ahead of Reform. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories would completely reverse their fortunes, securing 130 seats, seven more than Farage’s insurgents.

This cratering of Reform’s support in terms of parliamentary seats cements a trend emerging in the national polls for the best part of a year.

Last October, Nigel Farage was master of all he surveyed. Reform’s polling average stood at 31 per cent, 11 points ahead of Labour and 14 points north of the Tories.

Today, he is laying in the psephological gutter, staring up at Andy Burnham. Labour now leads on 24 per cent. Reform’s vote share has collapsed by a third, to 22 per cent, with the Tories now just 3 percentage points behind on 19.

And that is only half of the story. Because of the size of the poll, it took YouGov the best part of a month to collate the data. When it began canvassing opinion, its own national figures actually gave Reform a one-point lead over Labour, with the Tories four behind. But the company’s most recent analysis, published on Monday, now has Labour ahead by two points, and the Tories and Reform neck and neck.

Last October, Nigel Farage was master of all he surveyed, writes Dan Hodges. Today, he is laying in the psephological gutter

If an election were held tomorrow, Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats, more than 100 seats ahead of Reform

In other words, the latest appalling numbers for Reform actually overestimate the party’s base support. Because of what’s called ‘voter efficiency’ (the uneven regional correlation between ballots and seats created by our first-past-the-post electoral system), a result in which the Tories and Reform were tied in vote share would see the Conservatives securing a significantly higher number of seats.

What’s more, a closer examination of the figures shows things getting even worse for Reform.

While the MRP poll has sophisticated methodology, it doesn’t account for tactical voting. And a separate sizeable poll published yesterday by Survation revealed increasing public antipathy towards Nigel Farage personally – his current unfavourability rating stands at a toxic 69 per cent – and his party. This means tactical voting could easily see Reform pushed into fourth place in a general election behind the Liberal Democrats.

Reform’s leader and colleagues can scream and shout and complain about Establishment stitch-ups all they like. The numbers don’t lie. Their party now has no credible path to a majority at the next election.

Which leaves the British people facing a stark, if binary, choice. Following the publication of YouGov’s mega poll, calls began to grow for the Right to unite and agree some type of pact. But again, the figures show that strategy simply isn’t tenable. Based on the MRP, there is no viable post-election coalition for the Right. To form a government, 326 seats are required. The projected combined Tory and Reform total stands at 253 – 73 short. And apart from a tiny number of Ulster Unionists, there is no one else to form a pact with.

Others have called on a deal to be done before any election. But again, that is not viable. Two weeks ago, respected pollster Lord Ashcroft published an analysis of voters’ responses to a possible pre-election arrangement between the Tories and Reform. It showed Kemi Badenoch would lose between 31 per cent and 60 per cent of her current vote share. Nigel Farage would lose between 8 per cent and 25 per cent. As Lord Ashcroft explains, in the event of a deal ‘we would currently expect it [a Reform/Tory alliance] to poll 28 per cent of the vote – much less than the share the two parties currently command between them’.

The simple reality is this. The country is facing a scenario where only Andy Burnham has a realistic prospect of forming a government. And on the most recent figures that would involve a ‘rainbow’ – some would say ‘nightmare’ – coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP or Plaid Cymru. That would raise the prospect of the fragmentation of the Union. Or even, if the results fell a certain way, the spectre of hard-Left independents Jeremy Corbyn, Zarah Sultana and a rag-tag bunch of Islamist independents holding the balance of power.

For those who wish to oppose this hellish scenario, the Right does indeed need to unite. But the only pragmatic way is to unite behind Kemi Badenoch and the Tories.

Reform can still win the next election – but it can only win it for Andy Burnham.

That sole chance is Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives. Over the past 12 months she has transformed her personal ratings and slowly but surely dragged the Tories to near parity with Reform

Over the past couple of months, Reform’s leader has done everything he can to try to arrest his and his party’s decline in the polls

Join the discussion

What do you think would happen to Britain if the Right fails to unite before the next election?

What's your view?

Nigel Farage’s sole practical role in national politics is now to act as Burnham’s human shield, preventing Badenoch from properly getting to grips with Labour’s leader, and ushering the Prime Minister into an unholy alliance with the extreme Left.

As one Tory source revealed: ‘Our private polling shows the link between Farage, Reform and sleaze has cut through. At the same time the perception Reform are “different” is fading.

‘These latest polls align with these numbers. Things are not going to get any better for Reform. The fact is the more people consider the idea of Nigel Farage sitting in Downing Street, the less they like it.’

Over the past couple of months, Reform’s leader has done everything he can to try to arrest his and his party’s decline in the polls. The Clacton by-election. Reform’s pledge to use the Navy to stop the small boats. The announcement of £72million in funding from two foreign crypto-billionaires.

And the result is that decline is now accelerating. Meaning there is only one opportunity left for the Right to come together to prevent Burnham calling an election some time in 2027, and securing another five years in power.

That sole chance is Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives. Over the past 12 months she has transformed her personal ratings. In turn, she has slowly but surely dragged the Tories to near parity with Reform in the polls. And in a fortnight she has the opportunity at the Conservative conference to set out a bold new vision for her party, her country and all those seeking an alternative to the Prime Minister’s unashamed, old-style socialism.

But she cannot do it alone. Yes, the Conservative Party lost its way. It is completely understandable people were momentarily attracted to the refreshing brand of cheeky, Brit-Populism pioneered by Nigel Farage.

But it’s clear the Reform insurgency has run its course. There is no realistic prospect of the party returning to 30 per cent in the polls. And any figure below that ensures the keys of No 10 stay firmly in the hands of the Left.

This is the cold, hard political reality. At the next election Andy Burnham will be returned to power. Or he will be replaced by Kemi Badenoch. Because whether you love Nigel Farage, or you loathe him, his numbers do not add up.