Netanyahu meets MBZ as US-Iran war rages: What’s behind Israel PM's secret UAE visit?

Israeli Prime MInister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled secretly to the United Arab Emirates over the weekend, news agency AP reported. The trip was aimed at asking Emirati leader to deny reports he had warned Netanyahu about a looming Hamas threat ahead of the Palestinian militant group's 7 October, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

The meeting between Netanyahu and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan took place on Sunday, two people who were briefed on the Israeli leader's trip confirmed to the news agency on Monday.

Haaretz report on 9 September

Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on 9 September that the UAE president,Al Nahyan spoke to Netanyahu on the phone about 10 days before the attack, warning him of a threat made by then-Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar that he was preparing a “huge surprise”.

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also known as MBZ or MbZ, is an Emirati royal and politician who has served as the third president of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi since 2022.

The meeting was first reported by Israel’s Channel 12 TV station.

One of them, according to the AP report, said the talks focused on a report published by the Israeli daily Haaretz earlier this month that said the Emirati leader warned Netanyahu about a looming attack by Hamas just ahead of October 7, 2023.

Netanyahu asked Sheikh Mohamed to deny the report, according to a person said to have firsthand information about the meeting. Netanyahu’s office had previously denied the Haaretz report. The person, along with a regional official briefed on the meeting, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the secret trip.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s office said that the meeting focused on “strengthening relations between the two countries and regional challenges.”

Netanyahu’s wife, the head of the National Security Council, the head of the Mossad, a military secretary, and a political adviser were also with the Israeli PM during the UAE visit.

The rare trip comes exactly one month before Israel’s October 27 election and against the backdrop of heightened political controversy in Israel over reporting by Haaretz and The New York Times alleging that Sheikh Mohammed had warned Netanyahu of a major Hamas operation days before the October 7, 2023, attack.

At least 1,195 people in southern Israel during the Hamas attack and took around 250 captive. Israel’s response developed into a full blown war on Gaza, in which at least 73,669 Palestinians have been killed so far, as per estimates by human rights bodies.

Shin Bet files a complaint

The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service, filed a complaint with Israel’s chief military censor against Channel 12 over what it called a serious censorship violation. It said the timing of the report endangered the prime minister and the operation and forces on the ground and exposed Shin Bet operational methods.

The UAE’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on reports about the meeting but stressed it maintains “open and direct lines of communication” with Israel and shares “all relevant intelligence.”

The UAE’s state-run WAM news agency later confirmed the visit, saying the two leaders on Sunday discussed “bilateral relations between the UAE and Israel, as well as ways to strengthen and develop them.”

Meeting dominated by discussion on Iran War

An Israeli source familiar with the visit told CNN on Sunday that the secret meeting was dominated by discussion of Iran, an arena where the two countries have deepened their cooperation, including during the current Iran war.

But WAM, the state news agency of the UAE, confirmed that Sheikh Mohammed and Netanyahu held a meeting . The two leaders “discussed bilateral relations between the UAE and Israel and ways to strengthen and further develop them,” WAM reported.

There were rarlier reports of warning from Sheikh Mohammed to Netanyayu. But UAE’s Foreign Ministry had earlier this month that it “does not comment on media stories or speculation regarding conversations between government leaders,” but it did not deny the call.

“When necessary, all relevant intelligence has been and continues to be communicated between the relevant entities,” the statement said.

At the time, an Israeli source familiar with the matter said Netanyahu’s office tried to get the UAE to deny the report, but the UAE only agreed to issue a statement about intelligence sharing.

Neither Israel nor the UAE mentioned the reported October 7 warning in their Monday statements about Netanyahu’s trip, CNN reported.

In May, Netanyahu’s office said the prime minister had secretly visited the UAE in March, during the early days of the Iran war, calling it a “historic breakthrough.” The UAE foreign ministry, however, denied his claim at the time as “completely unfounded.”

What does it mean for US-Israel war

The meeting is significant because it appears to be about more than Israel-UAE bilateral ties, even though the two governments’ public statements did not disclose details of the discussions.

Israel and the UAE have maintained diplomatic ties since signing the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020. But the relationship has become particularly important as the fallout of US-Iran war in the reguon has intensified.

Abu Dhabi has sought to maintain its own channels with Tehran while also developing security cooperation with Israel, as reported by international media.

The UAE’s geographic proximity to Iran makes it particularly vulnerable to any escalation. The country has faced Iranian attacks during the current conflict, while Israel has reportedly provided air-defence assistance to help protect Emirati territory. In May, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said Israel had deployed Iron Dome batteries and personnel to the UAE amid concerns over Iranian attacks.

That gives the Netanyahu-MBZ channel added significance: Israel and the UAE have a shared security concern over Iran, even though Abu Dhabi has not publicly positioned itself as a participant in US-Israel’s war against Tehran.

The UAE has also emphasised that it maintains “open and direct lines of communication” with Israel and that relevant intelligence is shared between the two sides.

Abu Dhabi has its own relationship with Tehran and has repeatedly sought to avoid being drawn deeper into regional conflicts.

Why the October 7 controversy matters

The timing of the meeting also matters domestically for Netanyahu.

The reported warning from MBZ, if established, would add another dimension to the continuing Israeli debate over what intelligence and warnings were available before the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.

Haaretz has reported that MBZ warned Netanyahu about a “huge surprise” roughly 10 days before the attack, while Netanyahu's office has denied the report. The UAE has not publicly confirmed the alleged conversation.

Netanyahu's reported request that MBZ deny the account therefore has significance beyond the Israel-UAE relationship: it touches on the politically sensitive question of what the Israeli leadership knew before October 7 and what action was taken on available warnings.

The UAE visit appears to have two overlapping dimensions: the immediate political controversy surrounding the alleged October 7 warning, and the broader strategic relationship between Israel and the UAE as the Iran war continues.