CPI read: Coffee prices rise 7% in September

Coffee prices rose 7.1% in September, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Roasted coffee prices were up 7.2% from a year ago, while instant coffee prices were 6.8% higher. Overall, core inflation was up 3.7% year-over-year during the month.

A recent headwind in the coffee market is the current slow pace of Brazil's harvest amid heavy rains, which is keeping supplies tight and underpinning prices. Industry reporting indicates that the harvest is well below the pace of last year. Coffee prices also continue to be impacted by the devastating earthquake earlier in the year in Colombia. The coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production, saw production slowdowns due to the disaster.

Looking ahead, the Super El Niño forecast is considered a material upside risk for coffee prices, especially robusta in late 2026 and potentially arabica in 2027. El Niño typically brings hotter, drier conditions to Vietnam and Indonesia during the key coffee development periods.

Companies potentially impacted by the level of coffee prices include Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Dutch Bros (BROS), First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG), Coffee Holding (JVA), Dunkin' Brands, J.M. Smucker (SJM), Starbucks (SBUX), Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB), McDonald's (MCD), Costa Coffee (KO), Tim Hortons (QSR), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY), Nestle (NSRGY), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT).