Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, time: 'Monday Night Football' Week 1 NFL picks by proven model
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The SportsLine projection model has revealed its Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks for the 2026 NFL Week 1 'Monday Night Football' matchup
• 2 min read
The Kansas City Chiefs look to rebound from a rare non-playoff year when they kick off the 2026 season against the defending AFC West champion Denver Broncos on 'Monday Night Football' to conclude the Week 1 NFL schedule. After winning the AFC West for nine consecutive seasons and reaching the Super Bowl in five of six seasons, Kansas City slumped to 6-11 in 2025. Denver, meanwhile, was 14-3 last season and earned its first division title since 2015. The Broncos reached the AFC Championship Game where they dropped a 10-7 decision to the New England Patriots. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds have Kansas City as 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 42.5, down a point from the opener. Before making any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions from SportsLine's projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Broncos vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Broncos:
Broncos vs. Chiefs spread | Chiefs -2.5 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs over/under | 42.5 points |
Broncos vs. Chiefs money line | Chiefs -131, Broncos +112 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs picks | |
Broncos vs. Chiefs streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Chiefs vs. Broncos, the model is going Under 42.5 combined points (-108) at betting apps. The Broncos had one of the best defenses in the league last year, holding opponents to just 18.3 points per game, third-least in the NFL. Kansas City was also solid, allowing 19.3 points, which was No. 6. Both quarterbacks, meanwhile, are coming off a major injury and could be eased back into action.
Denver quarterback Bo Nix is projected to be held to under 200 yards passing with just one touchdown. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is projected to throw for 180 yards and one score. SportsLine's model projects 40 combined points between the Broncos vs. Chiefs as the Under hits 63% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks
In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.
Who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 53-37 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.
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