B.C. Conservatives have five-point lead over NDP as voting day nears: survey

New survey data from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) is showing the Conservatives leading the B.C. election race over the incumbent NDP.

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Half (48 per cent) of leaning and decided B.C. voters are saying they would vote for the Conservatives, says ARI, adding that 43 per cent indicate support for the NDP.

Overall, says ARI, almost half of British Columbians (46 per cent) say they are “very certain” about their voting intentions. That’s an increase from the one-third (35 per cent) during the first week of the campaign. This growth in certainty “is reflected much more among B.C. Conservative supporters than those who would support the B.C. NDP,” says ARI.

Back on Sept. 24, half (47 per cent) of B.C. Conservative supporters said they were “very certain” of their choice. Two-thirds (65 per cent) say that now. For the B.C. NDP, 44 per cent are firm in their voting intent, which is an increase of just three points since the beginning of the campaign.

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When the writ was dropped at the end of September, B.C. NDP leader David Eby pointed to President Donald Trump and the U.S. tariffs as the key reason his party should be given a majority mandate. However, according to the ARI, this was not among the top six issues for voters, even at the start of the campaign. Since then it has fallen further down the list. Only 10 per cent of voters say the U.S. tariffs/Donald Trump/alcohol ban is the “most important” issue to them when deciding how to cast their vote.

That’s behind concerns such as cost of living (57 per cent), health care (42 per cent), the economy/jobs (26 per cent), housing affordability (24 per cent), the deficit (24 per cent) and public safety (24 per cent). It’s even behind secondary issues such as the opioid crisis (15 per cent), climate change (14 per cent) and poverty (13 per cent).

B.C. voters haven’t had much time to get to know Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson, but a growing number now have an opinion about him, says ARI. “There are as many who view him positively (38 per cent) as negatively (37 per cent),” says ARI. “That is better than Eby performs on the same question. Three-in-five (58 per cent) say they view the B.C. NDP leader unfavourably; one-third (36 per cent) favourably.”

Doerkson has a slight edge (36 per cent) over Eby (33 per cent) on the question of who British Columbians believe would be the best premier. Though, almost as many say neither is the best choice to lead the province (31 per cent), notes ARI.

There is a gender divide in party support, especially among voters older than 54. Three-in-five men in that age bracket say they are planning to vote Conservative, while a majority (54 per cent) of women plan to support the NDP. The Conservatives are preferred among both men and women aged 35-to 54, while the NDP have more support among voters under 35.

The NDP needs to convince the 2024 voters who elected them to return at even higher rates, states ARI. However, the survey shows that one-quarter of people who voted for the party two years ago say they are undecided or voting for the Greens (6 per cent) or Conservatives (8 per cent).

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are retaining 86 per cent of supporters from the 2024 election.

British Columbians go to the polls on Oct. 24.

The Angus Reid Institute conducted this online survey from Oct. 1-3, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,013 Canadian adults who are residents of British Columbia. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

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