Israel strike in Syria may push US to broker deal between Jerusalem and Damascus - analysis

In an unusual turn of events, Israel’s decision to carry out an airstrike in northern Syria may have helped spur the US to action in terms of helping Syria and Israel come to some kind of accommodation and agreement.

Israel has long used military power as a way to send messages and also wring concessions. This has led to the Trump administration helping to get a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza and also get a ceasefire in Lebanon. Now the warnings of a crisis in Syria between Israel and Turkey, two key US allies, may help lead to some kind of positive outcome.

A lot depends on whether Jerusalem is willing to climb down from some of its rhetoric. It also will depend on what the US can help arrange. This isn’t the first time the US helped bring Syria and Israel to the table. There was a trilateral meeting in January.

Now Syrian state media is portraying Israel-Syria engagement as potentially heading in the right direction.

Syria doesn't trust Israel, Foreign Minister says as negotiations continue

Syrian state media said on August 21 that “Foreign Minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, said Syria expects negotiations with Israel over a security agreement to resume soon, stressing that Damascus’ immediate priority is to halt Israeli attacks and establish confidence-building measures.”

The report noted that “in an interview with Reuters broadcast Sunday, al-Shaibani said Damascus hopes a security agreement would ultimately lead to an Israeli withdrawal from the Syrian territory, calling for a ‘historic opportunity’ to be seized while diplomacy remains open to any path capable of achieving political progress.”

He pointed to the fact that there wasn’t a follow-up from the January meeting. “The negotiations were frozen after the Iranian-Israeli war, and we hope they will resume in the near future so that we can complete this process,” al-Shaibani said.

“We do not trust Israel at present. We deal with it through our interactions, but there is currently no trust,” he noted. “Contacts were suspended following the Israeli attack on Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Idlib province last Tuesday,” the report said.

This illustrates that there are limits to how effective military force will be for Israel. The strategist Clausewitz argued that military operations and politics are entwined. One cannot solely pursue diplomacy or war.

SANA noted that “Al-Shaibani said communication was necessary, particularly with a party that constantly threatens Syria’s security, but stressed that Damascus had no interest in contacts that produced no results.”

The Syrian diplomat said, “Israel has repeatedly tried to preserve its security through hard power, and it has not succeeded…The door is open, and I believe negotiations will resume soon.” Syria believes the US can help get to the proverbial “yes.”

Shaibani said, regarding whether he is optimistic, that it is “very difficult to bet on Israel.” Nevertheless, Syria wants stability. His messaging is clear. The door is open to a positive future. “He stressed that Syria was extending its hand toward understandings, peace and diplomacy and wanted the region to be stable.

Damascus, he said, had no objection to Israel asking that its security concerns be taken into consideration, but Israel must likewise respect Syria’s security concerns and sovereignty,” SANA noted.

Lastly, “on the proposed security agreement, al-Shaibani made clear that the Syrian and Israeli sides had agreed on almost everything on paper, including several points, foremost among them an end to Israeli attacks on Syria and non-interference in its internal affairs.”

“Syria’s focus now is on stopping the attacks before anything else, even before the security agreement,” the Foreign Minister said. “The issues of peace and the Golan could be opened later. We have now taken a step backward.”

Talk of a new mechanism linked to talks in Jordan, that would help de-conflict, is key. “We want it to be a mechanism to stop the attacks and pave the way for reaching a security agreement culminating in Israel’s withdrawal from Syria,” he added.

“Al-Shaibani went on to say that Israel attacked Abu al-Duhur military airbase even after Syria had conveyed a message that the facility would not become a Turkish base,” SANA noted.

Jordan hosted Syria talks in the past

In addition, Syrian state media confirmed reports of a meeting in Jordan. “a high-level Syrian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani and including the heads of the General Intelligence and Military Intelligence services held a meeting Sunday with a high-level Israeli delegation under US mediation and hosted by Jordan, a diplomatic source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates told SANA.”

The report went on to note that “discussions focused on establishing practical mechanisms to halt Israeli attacks, arrests and targeting operations, and reviving negotiations with the aim of reaching a security agreement that could serve as the basis for a more comprehensive future agreement.”

Lastly, “according to the source, the meeting focused on practical steps to de-escalate tensions while exploring ways to return to negotiations, with Syria stressing that any security arrangements must respect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and sovereign rights.”

It’s worth noting that the Trump administration has turned to Jordan before regarding Syria. Back in 2017, during the first Trump administration, the US, Russia and Jordan agreed to put in place a ceasefire across south-western Syria. That ceasefire collapsed in 2018.

However, at the time it showed how Jordan could play an important role. Jordan has also carried out airstrikes against drug smugglers in southern Syria in recent years.

In 2018 Jordan took in the White Helmets after Israel helped facilitate their evacuation from southern Syria via the Golan. This shows how Jordan continues to play a pragmatic role. Jordan has ties with Israel. Also it supports the new Syrian government.

It is also a friend of the US and UK and a key friend of Gulf Arab states. As such, Amman and the US appear to be paving the way for better engagement between Israel and Syria, potentially calming tensions.