Malaysia faces population decline as fertility rate continues to fall

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's total fertility rate (TFR) remains below the replacement level, recording 1.6 children per woman aged 15 to 49 in 2024.

National Population and Family Development Board (LPPKN) director-general Datuk Abdul Shukur Abdullah said the rate was well below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

"Based on the Vital Statistics Malaysia 2025 report published by the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Malaysia's TFR for 2024 stood at 1.6 children for every woman aged 15 to 49.

"This rate is far below the population replacement level, which is around 2.1 children per woman," he said.

By ethnic group, the Malay community recorded the highest TFR in 2024 at 1.9 children per woman, followed by other Bumiputeras at 1.6, Indians at 1.1, and Chinese at 0.9.

He said that while the Chinese community recorded the lowest fertility rate, the trend should not be linked solely to cultural or racial factors.

"Among the factors influencing low fertility are delayed marriages, an increasing age when having the first child, living and housing costs, childcare and education expenses, higher female participation in education and employment, and challenges in balancing work and family responsibilities," he said.

He said couples in urban areas were also more cautious about family planning.

"The decision to have a second or third child does not depend merely on the desire to have children, but on whether the family has sufficient time, financial resources, childcare support, and workplace backing," he said.

He said Malaysia must intensify interventions to slow the declining fertility rate to prevent population decline and age-structure imbalances by 2100.

Abdul Shukur said the national TFR dropped from 2.0 children per woman in 2015 to 1.6 in 2024.

The drop was far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, which is the level needed to maintain population size over the long term without taking migration into account, he said.

"However, declining fertility is not unique to Malaysia. It is a global trend, especially in developed countries where more women pursue higher education, enter the workforce, and postpone marriage and childbearing.

"Malaysia is among the countries experiencing a rapid decline in fertility rates. Looking at the data from 2015 to 2024, the rate fell by 0.4 points in about 10 years.

"Therefore, interventions must be carried out to slow this trend so that we can delay population decline," he said.

On long-term targets, Abdul Shukur said demographic studies showed Malaysia was unlikely to meet its previously projected target of 70 million people by 2100.

He said Malaysia must address changes in its population structure caused by declining birth rates and rising life expectancy.

"This situation can lead to an increase in the elderly population compared with the youth, which will strain social support systems, healthcare, and retirement savings.

"With the fertility rate at 1.6, we must look at the long-term impact.

"If births continue to fall behind deaths, the population could begin to shrink," he said.

On efforts to boost fertility rates, Abdul Shukur said it was not an easy task as it required substantial investment and a comprehensive approach to ease the cost of raising children.

"The experience of several countries that have succeeded in raising fertility rates shows that governments must provide financial support and facilities that enable couples to balance work and family life.

"The government needs to invest in reducing the cost of raising children, including financial aid, childcare, and family support.

"When couples are forced to choose between building careers and having children, costs and support facilities become key considerations," he said.

He noted that several states had introduced childbirth and family-related assistance, but their capacity to offer incentives varied depending on their financial standing.

"Therefore, efforts to raise fertility cannot rely solely on baby bonuses. They must be supported by a family-friendly ecosystem that encompasses childcare, education, and work-life balance," he said.

Abdul Shukur also said preparations for an ageing population must be prioritised, including ensuring that senior citizens have adequate retirement savings and strong family support systems.

He said longer life expectancy meant people must prepare financially and physically for extended retirement years.

"Ageing is not just about population figures. We must also look at physical and mental health, financial capacity, and family support.

"Family ties are essential so that the elderly are not marginalised or forced to live alone without support," he said.

Abdul Shukur added that strong family foundations must be established before marriage and maintained throughout family life to foster love, responsibility, and mutual support.