Latvia: Ruling party leads in exit polls amid populist gains

The party of Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs took a comfortable lead in parliamentary elections on Saturday, exit polls showed.

Kulbergs' centerist, pro-Ukraine party, United List, was projected to win 35.6% of the vote, according to an exit poll by public proadcaster LSM.

"It's remarkably ‌good. ​I was not expecting such result," Kulbergs said at his party's headquarters in Riga.

The exit poll put the the populist Latvia First party in second place with 11.3% — nearly double its share at the last election in 2022. It had courted the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority.

Kulbergs said on Saturday night that he would not cooperate with any pro-Russian parties and specifically ruled out forming a coaltition with Latvia First.

Latvia vote shaped by Russia fears

Some 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in the country's 11th parliamentary election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The election, which saw 100 seats in the Saeima being contested by 14 parties using a proportional system, has been dominated by rising living costs and national security concerns in the small Baltic country which borders both Russia and Belarus.

Kulbergs, has only been in office since May after the previous government collapsed over a dispute about Ukrainian drones. Despite his party leading opinion polls, his coalition is expected to emerge weakened as populist parties gain.

Latvia vote shaped by Russia concerns

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine is seen as a direct threat to national security in Latvia which, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet state with a sizeable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority.

Unlike Ukraine, however, Latvia is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

Riga is one of Kyiv's closest partners and supporters, having committed itself by law to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense – leaving less room for spending elsewhere.

Many Latvians complain of high prices and low wages, the economy is sluggish, the health system is under strain, and emigration and an ageing population remain persistent challenges.

Populist movements such as the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and the Latvia First party have attempted to exploit discontent by taking a less stringent line towards Moscow and arguing that a complete economic decoupling from Russia is damaging.

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German Eurofighter jets in Latvian airspace

Nevertheless, no parties are proposing any major deviation from Latvia's clear foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO.

Indeed, four German Eurofighter jets have been deployed to protect Latvian airspace during the election in response to a request from Riga.

Once ballots are counted, attention is likely to shift quickly to coalition negotiations, which could prove lengthy and complex.

Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.

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