Wherever PAS goes, Gerakan and MIPP will follow, say analysts

Perikatan Nasional may lose its name and logo if it is eventually deregistered, but component members Gerakan and the Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP) are unlikely to stray far from PAS, say political analysts.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Sivamurugan Pandian said both parties are likely to remain with PAS if the Islamic party gives them sufficient electoral space and political identity.

Sivamurugan said Gerakan and MIPP would probably prefer PN to survive, but could follow PAS into a new political vehicle if the coalition was deregistered.

“They would like to keep PN, but if Bersatu leans towards PH, the advantage is for Bersatu to keep PN if PN is not deregistered.

“If that is the scenario, PAS, Wawasan, Gerakan and MIPP may activate MN as a new coalition,” he said, referring to Muafakat Nasional.

The Registrar of Societies has suspended PN following a notice issued to the coalition seeking an explanation of a complaint lodged by Bersatu.

RoS said the suspension, which took effect on Sept 23, was intended to safeguard PN’s interests and prevent it from continuing to breach its rules.

New coalition if PN goes

Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia said the relationship among the PN parties mattered more than the coalition’s formal structure.

“Even if PN was dissolved, it would not be a problem. They could simply form another coalition under a different name and recreate the same structure.

“If there is not enough time to establish a new coalition before an election, they could contest under another party’s flag, most likely PAS, or perhaps Wawasan,” he said.

Lau said the decision by Gerakan and MIPP to stay put in PN suggested that they were more comfortable remaining alongside PAS than aligning themselves with Bersatu.

“If Gerakan or MIPP were genuinely closer to Bersatu and wanted to remain with it, they could leave PN and form another grouping or simply align themselves with Bersatu.

“But that has not happened in recent months. They appear comfortable remaining in PN or, in other words, alongside PAS,” he said.

PAS holds key to smaller parties’ future

Sunway University’s Wong Chin Huat said the smaller parties were unlikely to dictate what a post-PN arrangement would look like.

“The simple answer is that MIPP and Gerakan don’t matter. They don’t decide. PAS and Wawasan decide.

“If PAS and Wawasan decide to field their candidates in the coming Melaka election, they will get to contest as part of the PAS bloc. Very likely, they would contest under PAS’s flag,” he said.

Wong said any deregistration of PN will essentially have only one effect: the logo used for PN candidates, likely to be replaced by PAS’s, which might have lesser appeal to a tiny segment of the electorate.

He said Gerakan and MIPP’s choices would ultimately be guided by electoral necessity.

“Gerakan and MIPP are rational players. They don’t love PAS, Wawasan or Bersatu. They love whichever party can deliver them votes because these parties can’t deliver votes themselves.

“PN’s deregistration doesn’t affect their chances of being fielded. That’s decided by PAS and Wawasan’s strategic calculations,” he said.

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