Will U.S. travel pick up after midterm 'blue wave'? Not so fast, say these Canadians

Travel from Canada to the U.S. dropped amid President Donald Trump's threats and trade war. While many Canadians view the Democratic Party's midterm election victory as an 'encouraging' sign, they say it's too soon to visit the U.S. again amid continued distrust.

Many Canadians have been boycotting U.S. travel amid Trump's tariffs and other threats

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John May had low expectations ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. 

But he was glad to see the Democratic Party take control of both chambers of Congress in a Nov. 3 vote that many observers have described as a resounding rebuke of U.S. President Donald Trump.

"It's encouraging, isn't it? To see that there's finally some common sense coming around down there," said the 73-year-old from Manotick, Ont., an Ottawa suburb.

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May, who stopped travelling to the United States last year amid Trump's repeated threats against Canada, said he and his wife Patti aren't ready to go south of the border again just yet though.

The couple had spent winters in Florida for more than a decade before May said the atmosphere turned "toxic" as Trump mocked Canadian leaders and pushed to turn Canada into the "51st state."

"We'd like to, but we're not feeling like we want to go back yet," May told CBC News. 

"I think we've got to wait until they've got a different president down there and a whole different attitude," he said. "Things haven't changed enough. We'll need a couple more years, I think."

John and Patti May pose for a photo in Key West, Fla., in February 2024. (Submitted by John May)

Drop in travel

Many Canadians, including those with relatives or business interests south of the border, have continued to travel to the U.S. amid Trump's threats and the trade war with Canada.

But data shows travel to the U.S. has dropped alongside the strained relationship.

According to Statistics Canada, return border crossings from the U.S. fell by about 25 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.

• Are you changing your holiday plans due to the cost of domestic airfare in Canada? Getting creative to find cheaper alternatives? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.

There has been a slight increase in 2026: A total of 1.9 million return trips by car and air from the U.S. were reported in October, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year growth and a three per cent increase from October 2025, Statistics Canada reported.

But when compared with October 2024, return trips by car were down 29 per cent while those by air were down 19.6 per cent.

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Possible 'softening' of travel plans

It's too soon to say whether the midterms will lead to a major increase in Canadian travel south.

McKenzie McMillan, a travel consultant and co-owner of The Travel Group in Vancouver, said that, anecdotally, there may be some "softening" around U.S. travel.

"But it hasn't really translated at this point into new bookings, or a real change in the overall sentiment to avoid the United States," McMillan said. "We are still hearing overall that travellers are looking to alternative destinations for their winter travel and beyond."

Spokespersons for Air Canada and Porter Airlines also told CBC this week that it was too early to say whether the midterms have had an effect on travel. Air Transat said it did not have sufficient data to identify a trend.

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But the midterms may help ease the negative feelings that some Canadians have had.

Marja Vermeer, a 67-year-old from Strathroy, Ont., said the vote results, coupled with messages over the past two years from Americans rejecting the Trump administration's attacks against Canada, make her more open to visiting the U.S.

"Especially to the states where they voted Democrat, I think they're ... a bit more comfortable and a bit more welcoming," she said.

Midterms provide 'great relief'

Jill Ellis-Worthington, 65, of London, Ont., also said the midterms made a recent trip to the U.S. more palatable.

Ellis-Worthington — who is originally from the U.S. but has been living in Canada since age 25 — said she went to her home country this month to deal with issues at a Texas property she owns. It was her first visit since 2024, and one she had put off for as long as possible.

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"There's just so much chaos and so much denial of everything that is America going on now with the government, so I just didn't want to support that in any way," she told CBC.

"I think there are a lot of people who feel great relief [after the midterms] and feel that there might be some light on the horizon."

Ellis-Worthington said Americans had been "nothing but friendly, gracious [and] hospitable" during her trip. But she acknowledged that some Canadians likely won't be going back soon, despite last week's vote. "And some won't ever go back, I don’t think."

The Peace Bridge U.S.-Canada border crossing is seen on March 20 in Buffalo, N.Y. (Yuki Iwamura/The Associated Press)

Distrust persists

Indeed, the new Congress doesn't take office until January, and many observers say the Trump administration's policies — including an immigration crackdown that has led to the detention of several Canadian citizens in recent months — continue to fuel distrust.

Mary Thurber, who lives in Lake Country in B.C.'s Okanagan Valley, said she has avoided going to the U.S. for several reasons.

"It's a combination of anger at their policies and disgust with some of the treatment of their own citizens, and frankly, a little bit of fear," said Thurber, 70. "And do I want to support the economy of ... an administration that is actively attacking my country?"

But she said visiting the U.S. is now "an active discussion" in her home after the midterms.

"My husband sometimes says, 'I know! Let's only go to the blue states,'" she said with a laugh. "And I'm like, 'Yeah but that doesn't quite deal with the fact that their president is still actively attacking us.'"

Thurber said she doesn't know when she might feel comfortable going back, adding she expects the Trump administration's policies to have a lasting impact. "That's a hard one," she said.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jillian Kestler-D'Amours is a senior writer at CBC based in Montreal. You can reach her at jillian.kestler-d.amours@cbc.ca.