HUGH HEWITT: The midterms are one month out — you need to know the stakes
The short answer: If a "blue wave" materializes, the nation’s national security will be greatly compromised and almost no new federal judges or cabinet appointments of any kind will occur. The sort of defense spending the country definitely and urgently needs will not be appropriated, and if he becomes majority leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer will shut down confirmations of almost all nominees from President Trump.
What difference would those changes make?
On the one hand — the hand that keeps a history textbook open — the answer is "not much." People expecting a "blue wave" may be disappointed that one or both of the houses of Congress don’t flip on election night, but even if they do, a different kind of disappointment awaits the Left
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First, even the rosiest of scenarios for the left doesn’t give Democrats veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, the sort of one-party governance that, for example, that has wrecked California. Divided government is a recipe for repeating government shutdowns which can annoy and even destroy some things, but cannot bring about fundamental change.
Democrats in D.C. cannot make all of America into California or New York without at least partisan control of all three branches of government and even then the sort of change the Democratic Socialists of America demand — abolition of the Senate and packing the Supreme Court are two of their "must haves" — require at least super majorities and probably Constitutional amendments.
The fever dreams of the Left are thus going to remain unfulfilled for a very long time, because, no matter how often the "No Kings" canasta parties gather, the Constitution is very strong and doesn’t yield to fits of high revolutionary passion. It was built with the danger of precipitous legislative action in mind and, because deliberation is a feature, not a bug, of our constitutional order, it is rare indeed when anything happens fast.
But significant damage would be done nonetheless, especially to national security spending. A lame duck Congress run by Republicans could try and pass a three-year defense appropriation, but if it can’t get that done between November 4, 2026, and January 3, 2027, the American military will be subject again to the sort of national security self-harm done during the years of "the Sequester."
Democratic control of the Senate is also almost a guarantee that not a single federal appeals court or Supreme Court nominee would pass through a Chuck Schumer-managed Senate. Schumer would simply roll tape of then-Senate Majority Leader McConnell announcing "no hearings, no votes" in the aftermath of the untimely death of Justice Scalia. Schumer will argue that McConnell set the precedent.
The optics of the different situations between McConnell’s refusal to move Merrick Garland forward in 2020 and those that result if a narrow Democratic Senate majority in 2027 blocks a vote on a Supreme Court nominee might be dramatic enough to wear down Democrats' resolve for revenge, but probably even a terrible look would not budge such a boycott and certainly not in 2028. Schumer would also likely refuse to allow votes on non-judicial Trump nominees no matter how far out the next election. His hold on the job of leader would be gone the instant he permitted a floor vote on any nominee of consequence, unless he was certain of the votes to defeat that nominee.
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We also know that the hard-left of the Democratic Senate nominees this year — Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, James Talarico in Texas, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and Mary Peltola in Alaska — will be united with the anti-defense doves already in the Democratic caucus. What the country must have — a budgeted demand signal for the defense-industrial base — will flicker out. The rebirth of American shipbuilding will disappear too, even as China’s Communist Party cheers on the smothering blanket of big government regulation of AI/SI descending on its competitors in the United States.
So a "blue wave" would do great damage, but there are some things such a wave could not do.
President Trump’s continued command of the American military would be unimpaired, for example, nor would such a wave wipe out the re-mooring to the Constitution that has been ongoing at the Supreme Court for the past decade.
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So a blue wave would be very bad news, but it wouldn’t overturn the Republic. GOP candidates are on firm ground with warnings about the mess that would follow giving majorities to Democrats but should avoid hysteria. Our adversaries abroad who are hoping for a Democratic wave should also remember that President George W. Bush ordered "the surge" after Republicans got "thumped" in 2006. If the rump regime in Iran is counting on Democrats to save it from Trump, they could not be more wrong.
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Vote Republican to keep the country defended and the Constitution intact. But don’t do so because the Republic is in peril. It’s not. Yet.
Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.
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