Scott Stinson: Ontario deficit to soar to $16.9B as Trump’s tariffs strangle growth

Looking over the Ontario government’s Fall Economic Statement, awash as it is in angry red numbers, ballooning deficit forecasts and slowed growth precipitated by Donald Trump’s tariffs, it’s hard to avoid one particular conclusion.

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Doug Ford thought this was a good time to buy a private jet?

The gravy plane has, of course, since been grounded, sold back to Bombardier in the spring after the premier realized the optics of his $30-million purchase would not, well, fly. But it is worth remembering that misstep if only because it was made, quietly, after delivery of the 2026 Budget in March — a document that has since proven to be a wildly optimistic assessment of the state of Ontario’s finances.

For all of Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy’s talk of fiscal prudence and responsibility as he released the economic statement at Queen’s Park on Thursday, this was a government that was fitting itself for a sweet new ride for the premier just as the economy was about to be submarined by the predictably unpredictable U.S. president.

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Here are the grim numbers, in short: The budget deficit for 2026-27 is now forecast to be $16.9 billion, up by more than $3 billion from the $13.8-billion forecast in the 2026 Budget, released in March. The deficit for 2027-28 is now forecast to be $12.7 billion, more than double what the March budget predicted ($6.1 billion.) And a budget that was supposed to return to surplus by 2028-29 is now expected to still be $5.7 billion in the hole in that fiscal year. This is the fourth time in the Ford era that the government has pushed back its target date for a balanced budget.

This is also, essentially, what Donald Trump has wrought, and it helps explain why Ford is often so exasperated when he talks about a president that he once supported. The premier came to power decrying the wasteful overspending of a decade of Liberal rule, and his PCs back in their early days of government anticipated achieving a balanced budget three years ago. That idea was derailed by the COVID pandemic, but just when it looked like a rebounding economy could finally put Ontario back in the black, along came Trump and his kamikaze approach to geopolitics, not only with trade but the war in Iran that has sent energy prices soaring.

The impacts on Ontario’s finances are stark. Tariffs have been imposed on more than 50 per cent of the province’s exports to the United States, which is partly responsible for lower GDP growth forecasts in the short term. Job growth, which had boomed in the post-COVID period, is now expected to slow considerably over the next few years. On the charts that the government released with the economic statement on Thursday, the “employment change” bars are wee little nubs right up until 2029. Governments often use these fiscal updates to proclaim that things are much better than their conservative budget forecasts. Not this one. It’s called “A Plan to Protect Ontario,” but it could have been “It’s Even Worse Than We Thought.”

Bethlenfalvy’s remarks in the legislature hit all the same themes that he and the premier have been touting for months: Ontario has been battered by global instability — a phrase that Trump could put on his red ballcaps — but it is shovelling money out the door both to build things and backstop affected industries. Forestry, automobiles, steel, aluminum, nuclear energy, critical minerals and on and on: lots of ministries, and private companies, getting a boost.

What was conspicuously not in the documents released on Thursday was any kind of plan to reduce the size of the public service — a goal that might have been expected given the party in charge of the government. Instead, the Ford PCs touted their work in “constraining” the number of employees added to public payrolls since 2017. Indeed, they have a point: the headcount has only increased by 1.6 per cent over that period, versus what the Ford government says was a 30 per cent rise in the federal public service over the same time. (And a 63 per cent jump in the number of B.C. government employees: Yowza!)

But still, given all the budget pressures, and President Global Instability, there were suspicions that Bethlenfalvy would be announcing significant belt-tightening measures this week. But, no: the document highlighted ongoing reviews at nine provincial agencies such as the LCBO, WSIB and Metrolink, that will “focus on efficiency, governance and productivity to ensure value for taxpayer dollars.” There was no mention of cutbacks or buyouts or any such words of restraint. Even Dalton McGuinty once took a harsher line on reducing government spending.

This is the paradox at the centre of the Ford government. He hates government waste with the fire of a thousand suns, he never gets tired of saying. But he also really doesn’t like it when people get angry with him. And so, even when delivering bad news — and the Fall Economic Statement is very much that — there isn’t much in there about tough medicine.

There is, instead, hope that all of the spending will deliver results, eventually. And a wish that a certain president will come to his senses. But that’s not something you could confidently put in your forecasts.

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