Germany's AFD could become 1st far-right party to hold state power since WWII. What could that mean?

On a warm August afternoon in the quiet eastern German town of Quedlinburg, thousands gathered to hear what a popular far-right leader had to say about the country's future.

Many came on their Simson motorcycles, which have become a cultural symbol for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, to meet Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's candidate to lead the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The party is soaring in opinion polls and in a regional election on Sunday, it could become the first far-right party to hold state power in Germany since the Second World War.

Experts say the AfD would gain significant political leverage over state resources in areas such as education, where it hopes to achieve goals such as creating separate classrooms for refugees, normalizing relations with Russia through student exchange programs and promoting a patriotism agenda that includes focusing less on the country's Nazi past.

"I think [Siegmund] speaks from his heart, from our hearts," Luca Stemmler, 17, said during the gathering in Quedlinburg.

"He's an idol for me."

Across the street from the motorcycle rally, counter-protesters waved rainbow flags and sang All You Need Is Love by The Beatles — a show of solidarity against a party some fear will challenge basic human rights and overhaul key aspects of Germany's postwar democratic order.

"I think this is something that might have ripple effects throughout Germany, throughout the European Union and thus also on a global stage," said Marcus Böick, a University of Cambridge historian who is from Saxony-Anhalt.

"Once they're in power, it's very hard to get rid of them."

How the AfD could hold state power

The country's major political parties refuse to collaborate with extremist parties in a strategy known as "the firewall," which is meant to safeguard Germany's postwar democracy. If opinion polls translate to votes — which experts say is possible, but not certain — the other parties may not be able to block the AfD out of the state government.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is leading in opinion polls at 42 per cent, according to German election research company Infratest-Dimap, which surveyed 1,511 eligible voters online and over the phone between Aug. 24 and 25.

The party also leads national opinion polls at 28 per cent, according to Infratest-Dimap, and secured the second highest number of seats in the 2025 federal election. 

The AfD began in 2013 as an anti-Euro party, but shifted its focus to issues surrounding migration in 2015, when then chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees from countries such as Syria into Germany.

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What are the AfD's goals?

The AfD calls for "remigration," a term often used in right-wing circles to refer to mass deportations of people who come from a migration background. In Saxony-Anhalt, it promises to ban immigration from non-European Union countries it deems problematic, establish hundreds of detention centres for deportees and create separate classrooms for refugee children.

Akinola Sanyaolu, who moved to Saxony-Anhalt's capital city of Magdeburg six years ago from Nigeria, says many people he works with blame immigrants for the country's political or economic problems. He said he's experienced many instances of racism in the city, but tries to remain positive because he wants to stay in the country where he's built a home.

"I feel attacked, but what can I do?" said Sanyaolu.

"They are not in my shoes. They don't know what it is to be a foreigner. I know what it is. I'm the one feeling it."

States have autonomy in many areas including environment, education, cultural policy and policing.

The Saxony-Anhalt AfD lists its specific goals in a lengthy government manifesto. They include banning Pride flags in schools and revising the state's history curricula to focus more on what it says are the positive aspects of Germany's past.

The party also defines a "healthy family" as a father, mother and children.

I would say, 'Make Saxony-Anhalt great again.'- Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, AfD politician in Saxony-Anhalt

Anki Wolf and Miriam Siemon recently got engaged, but their celebrations have been tainted by fear of rising political extremism. The lesbian couple live part-time in the state's small city of Dessau and they want to have kids. But they question whether it's safe to raise a family in Germany while fighting increasing homophobia.

"What is happening when there is a child involved? Can I say with my heart, I can stay here and I can protect this child?" said Wolf.

How far right is the AfD?

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is designated as right-wing extremist by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which monitors extremist threats.

Party members have come under fire for using language associated with Nazi groups and experts say many have ties to far-right, ethnonationalist movements.

If the AfD holds state power it could control state-level domestic intelligence services, which is reportedly raising concerns in part due to the party's ties to Russia. Party lawmakers have reportedly praised and visited the country, and in the Saxony-Anhalt AfD's government manifesto, it states that it has a strong interest in good relations with Russia both "economically and culturally."

A few days before the motorcycle rally, hundreds of AfD supporters congregated in the town of Querfurt. Many lined up for hours to get a signed T-shirt with Siegmund's face on the front. The polished 35-year-old is from a small town in Saxony-Anhalt and has more than 800,000 TikTok followers.

"Here, no one is a right-wing extremist," he said in German to his supporters at the festival.

"Here, everyone is extremely in their right."

Why is the AfD so popular?

While far-right populism has been rising in other European countries, what makes Germany unique is a lingering divide between the country's west and east, where AfD support is the strongest, said Böick, who researches modern German history. 

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Citizens in the formerly communist East Germany were promised increased freedoms through reunification, but inequality and unemployment remained rampant after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Many in the east left for job opportunities in the west, said Böick.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a member of the governing CDU, is also facing widespread unpopularity. 

If people are dissatisfied with mainstream political parties and are also dealing with political uncertainty fuelled by international wars and economic instability, they may feel motivated to vote for something new, said Oliver Schmidtke, former director of the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Victoria.

The party also has support from outside political actors. In 2025, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance publicly criticized Germany's firewall strategy and Elon Musk endorsed the party.

Saxony-Anhalt AfD politician Hans-Thomas Tillschneider is often described by experts as the brain behind the party's cultural policies. He told reporters at a family festival he hosted in the town of Querfurt, his voting district, that he's inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump.

"I would say 'Make Saxony-Anhalt great again,'" said Tillschneider.

What happens if the AfD wins?

Some experts worry the AfD's potential success could also increase the party's leverage federally. If it holds state power, it will sit in the Bundesrat, the second federal legislative chamber representing the country's 16 states. There, it could try to undermine attempts to pass legislation, said Schmidtke.

Schmidtke said Germany's robust constitution would make it difficult for the AfD to make sweeping changes, but winning a state election would further normalize the party as a legitimate political force.

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If the AfD secures the highest number of votes on Sunday but is blocked out of government by the other political parties, Böick said it could use this outcome to its advantage.

"This leads to their own narrative of being victimized, of being mistreated, of being undemocratically mistreated," said Böick.