André Pratte: Quebec’s separatists are spoiling for a fight with Carney

On Monday, Quebecers elected a relatively weak, minority separatist government. The Parti Québécois won 59 of the 127-seat National Assembly, securing only 28 per cent of the vote. How should the rest of Canada, the federal government in particular, respond to this unwelcome development? There is no reason for panic. Nor should Ottawa harbour any illusions: Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will do all he can to be able to hold — and win — a referendum on separation in 2029 or 2030, as he has promised repeatedly.

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As in the trade war with the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney should adopt a strategy that is thoughtful yet nimble, open yet firm. On Monday night, the Prime Minister congratulated the premier-designate and said: “Building a stronger Quebec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada.” What Carney calls “cooperative federalism ” must indeed be a large part of Ottawa’s approach. But that will not be enough. Whatever it may say to reassure Quebecers, who have little appetite for “la chicane” (squabbling), the Parti Québécois has no interest in cooperation; its goal is to break up the country. The party is convinced that federalism cannot work to Quebec’s advantage, and it will work hard to prove it.

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The Péquistes are excellent strategists and communicators. Since their victory on Monday evening, they have been pointing out that 40 per cent of Quebecers, not 28 per cent, voted for separatist parties, adding their own share of the vote to that of the small leftist group Québec Solidaire (nine seats). PSPP, as the PQ leader is widely known, said that his referendum pledge will be made possible “with the help of other indépendantistes from other parties”.

Convinced that picking fights with Ottawa is the best way to stoke the nationalist sentiment in the province, the PQ will challenge the federal government at every turn, from trade policy to immigration and everything in between, even the monarchy. The battle will be won or lost not in closed-door negotiations but in the court of public opinion. Waging it will require a deep understanding of Quebecers’ state of mind, a rigorous policy strategy and an agile communications campaign.

Mark Carney is very popular in Quebec, but there is no guarantee that his support will long withstand the separatist government’s constant attacks. The prime minister can count on strong ministers from Quebec, such as Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, and both his chief of staff, Marc-André Blanchard and the Clerk of the Privy council, Michael Sabia, know the province extremely well. But all of them have other, important, files to deal with. What Ottawa needs is a team of officials and MPs whose main task is to track Quebec’s fast-moving political landscape and respond intelligently and quickly.

To stay well informed, Ottawa should set up, at least informally, an advisory committee of Quebec leaders from a range of fields, representing a wide diversity of perspectives. Consulting this group regularly would allow the federal government to keep its finger on the pulse of Quebecers.

One challenge for the feds will be to distinguish between the issues on which Quebec has legitimate concerns and demands from those on which the PQ government is merely picking a fight for tactical reasons. Immigration is one issue where both governments should negotiate in good faith to address the surge of newcomers over the last decade, a situation that has caused a significant backlash in Quebec. Under an agreement signed in 1991, the province exercises extensive powers over immigration. But in the 35 years since the accord came into force, the volume and the composition of immigration have changed significantly. The 1991 agreement provides adjustment mechanisms; those should be used to the fullest so that Quebec has all the tools in hand to integrate newcomers successfully.

Immigration is a sensitive issue, but it is far from the only one on which the separatists hope to capitalize. Many of them are praying for the Supreme Court to strike down bill 21, the law prohibiting some public employees from wearing religious symbols. Such a ruling would, in the Péquistes’ view, hand them a powerful argument in favour of separation: “See, Quebec can’t even decide the place of religion in its public institutions!” Does Ottawa know what it will do if the Court decides that the law is unconstitutional? And what happens if the judges limit the use of the notwithstanding clause, thereby restricting Quebec’s legislative powers?

Last week, St-Pierre Plamondon said that he wants to “abolish the monarchy in Quebec.” He alluded that a bill could be tabled in the National Assembly to emasculate the office of Lieutenant Governor. If, as seems likely, such a bill proves unconstitutional, the government of Canada will have to step in, not to defend the monarchy as such — which is unpopular in Quebec — but to protect the institutions that safeguard Canadian democracy.

Don’t let the PQ’s weak score fool you. Under St-Pierre Plamondon, the party went from its deathbed — with only three MNAs in the 2022 election — to government a mere four years later. The premier-designate has other tricks up his sleeve.

André Pratte is chair of the Quebec Liberal Party’s policy committee and a consultant with the strategic advisory firm Catalyze4.

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